After temporarily rising during the subprime boom, U.S. homeownership rates plunged for young households before slowly rising in the late 2010s. We identify four key drivers of the homeownership rate of the young. The first is the relative cost of owning versus renting. The second is the severity of mortgage credit constraints, which delay the transition to homeownership. The role of credit constraints predated the subprime boom but became prominent in the wake of the subprime boom and bust. The third factor encompasses secular changes in family structure, proxied by the age when mothers first give birth. A fourth factor is the rising burden of student debt that has delayed the accumulation of downpayments and the transition to homeownership. We create a novel dataset of the average debt service burden ratio from the early 1980s on for each age cohort. Using a cointegrating model framework, we find that all four factors are significant drivers of the homeownership rate of young households, and that not accounting for college debt gives rise to omitted variable bias. Our study makes two contributions. First, we provide new time series data on the evolution of college debt service burdens. Second, we develop time series models of homeownership that jointly analyze the impact of access to credit, student debt, family factors, and the cost of owning to renting.

This article targets the role of intermediaries, such as refugee resettlement programs, in altering the geography of the foreign-born. It argues that, under such intermediaries, destination choice within the United States is largely determined not by economic mechanisms but instead by information-related factors such as friction of distance, migration chains, labor procurement, and resettlement intermediaries. Metropolitan statistical area (MSA) destinations are grouped into four profiles based on their mix of foreign-born. The result is sets of MSAs differentiated by the era of immigration, immigrant origins, geographic pattern, and place characteristics that draw migrants. To evaluate intermediary impacts, monies allocated to states by the Office of Refugee Resettlement, refugee resettlement by state, and refugee movements to MSAs are expressed as a Refugee Resettlement Index and linked to MSA profiles. We conclude that although refugees constitute only a portion of total immigration, their effects are disproportionately large in terms of changing the foreign-born profiles of MSAs and other communities, changing the fabric of society, and changing the geography of the foreign-born in all its ramifications.

The United States of America has always been a nation of immigrantsa land of opportunity wherenewcomers can, through hard work and perseverance, achieve better lives for themselves andtheir families. But in todays world, realizing the American Dream is now almost impossible withoutat least some college education, and many immigrants face significant barriers to gaining accessto and succeeding in higher education. Higher education for immigrants isnt an issue narrowlyfocused on the well-being of these immigrants as individuals but has major implications for thenation as whole. As the United States moves into the 21st century as part of a global economy inwhich postsecondary education is a key to economic competitiveness, it is imperative to developpolicies at the federal, state, local, and institutional levels to help immigrants gain access to andsucceed in higher education. Without such policies, the nation may find itself with a workforce thatdoes not have sufficient education to enable the United States to remain economically competitive.

Considerable media attention had been directed towards the flow of highly talented Canadians to the United States in the 1990s. There are firm theoretical reasons, however, to believe that qualitative differences in migration began as early as the 1980s, owing to the widening distribution of earnings and the related increased returns to education in the United States relative to Canada, both of which could result in qualitative improvements in the migration flow. US immigration policy remained essentially unchanged during the 1980s, but changed markedly in the late-1980s owing to the implementation of the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement and its successor the North American Free Trade Agreement (N AFTA). We use a flexible empirical approach to document these changes in immigrant quality using 1980, 1990, and 2000 US census data. Our results suggest that improvements in Canadian immigrant quality occurred during the 1990s, but these also happened earlier, casting doubt on the hypothesis of improving Canadian immigrant quality in the 1990s. Quantile regressions also show that improvement in the entry quality of immigrants was not limited to the upper tail of the earnings distribution.

The internet contains billions of documents, is there useful information in the number of websites about different topics? We propose, based on the premise that the occurrence of a phenomenon increases the likelihood that people write about it, that the relative frequency of documents discussing a phenomenon can be used to proxy for the corresponding occurrence-frequency. After establishing the conditions under which such proxying is likely to be successful, we construct proxies for a number of demographic variables in the US and for corruption across US states and countries, obtaining average correlations with occurrence-frequencies of 0.46 and 0.61 respectively. We also replicate results from two separate published papers establishing the correlates of corruption. Finally, we construct the first index of corruption in US cities and study its correlates.

The governments of nearly all countries are major providers of primary and secondary education to their citizens. In some countries, however, public schools coexist with private schools, while in others the government is the sole provider of education. In this study, we ask why different societies make different choices regarding the mix of private and public schooling. We develop a theory which integrates private education and fertility decisions with voting on public schooling expenditures. In a given political environment, high income inequality leads to more private education, as rich people opt out of the public system. More private education, in turn, results in an improved quality of public education, because public spending can be concentrated on fewer students. Comparing across political systems, we find that concentration of political power can lead to multiple equilibria in the determination of public education spending. The main predictions of the theory are consistent with state-level and micro data from the United States as well as cross-country evidence from the PISA study.

Long-term declines in elderly co-residence with children have been accompanied by increases in the use of the empty nest. Three models attempt to explain the shift: 1) cultural, normative change; 2) demographic factors; and 3) economic affluence, including Social Security. IPUMS data for men and women, 50 and over, reveal three distinct periods: slow trends toward the empty nest from at least 1880 to 1940, sharp upward ticks between 1940 and 1970, and slow upward trends from 1970 to 2000. The parallel behavior of diverse ethnic groups undermines cultural explanations; social security cannot account for trends for persons not covered. Multinomial logistic analyses for men of individual census points (and pooled estimates for 1880 to 1930 and 1940 to 2000 indicate consistency in some variables (e.g. age); but inconsistency in others (e.g. SES). Demographic factors, including level of immigration, may be one explanation for temporal shifts.

The current study examined how collective bargaining provisions affected average teacher salary trends for states from 1960 to 2000, after controlling for various economic, social, and demographic variables. Results show that collective bargaining had a significant, but waning, effect on teacher pay increases over the 40 year period with slight effects found in the 1970s after the initial organization of unions. Further, results show this effect in certain regions, but not others. Finally, results show that after controlling for other factors, the difference in teacher pay between collective bargaining and non-collective bargaining states has changed little over the last 40 years. Any increases experienced in the collective bargaining states were also experienced in the latter, either simultaneously or shortly thereafter. This study is the first interstate historical comparison of teacher pay that controls for teacher educational attainment and experience over a 40 year period, as well as adjusting for inflation and cost of living. The implications for this comprehensive and innovative approach calls for a refocusing of research on teacher salaries such that these findings combined with other studies of similar rigor and depth will be able to better inform educational policy decisions

The latest U.S. business cycle featured both a jobless recovery and substantial structural change, leading some to ponder the Sectoral Shift Hypothesis, whereby restructuring purportedly creates labor market inefficiencies. Previous studies have analyzed aggregate time series, but new data permit a cross-sectoral comparison between restructuring and increased labor market inefficiency (as measured from sectors Beveridge curves). This paper develops an estimation method and quantifies substantial increases in inefficiency during this period. However, contrary to the hypothesis, the increased inefficiency bears little relationship to the extent of sectors structural change.

The FasTracks Programmatic Cumulative Effects Analysis (PCEA) developed out of the need to evaluate broad ecosystem-wide cumulative effects of the overall FasTracks program. Although individual corridor documents are underway, it is important to evaluate the short and long-term effects of FasTracks from a regionwide perspective. This document (Version 1) is intended to set the basis of initial information. Subsequent versions are planned which will include analysis and documentation prepared in individual corridor NEPA documents. The Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) regulations implementing the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) define a cumulative impact as: “the impact on the environment which results from the incremental impact of an action when added to other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable future actions regardless of what agency (federal or non-federal) or person undertakes such other actions.” . . .

We test whether the effect of English proficiency differs between Hispanic andnon-Hispanic immigrants. Using 2000 Census microdata on childhoodimmigrants, we relate labor market, education, marriage and fertility variables totheir age at arrival in the United States, and in particular whether that age fellwithin the critical period of language acquisition. We interpret the observeddifferences as an effect of English-language skills and construct an instrumentalvariable for English proficiency. Immigrants from both groups exhibit lowerEnglish proficiency if they arrive after the critical period, but this drop in Englishskill is larger for Hispanics. The effect of English skill on earnings and educationis nevertheless quite similar across groups, while some differences are seen formarriage and fertility outcomes.

The period 1870-1930 witnessed the emergence of the local public library as a widespread and enduring American institution. During these years, access to free community-based library services spread to a much larger share of the U.S. population, while the institutional structure of local libraries underwent a transition from largely quasi-private, voluntary associations to the tax-supported public institutions familiar today. In this paper we describe this transition, and document the expansion of public libraries and library services in the United States over these years, using data drawn from library surveys conducted by the federal Bureau of Education. We then review some causal accounts for that expansion. Exploiting cross-state and temporal variation in the data, we estimate cross-section and panel regressions to assess plausible demand and supply factors affecting the pace of library development. We consider a number of the social and economic variables that have been found to correlate with the development of secondary educational institutions, which expanded during roughly the same historical period: these include, when available, income or wealth, urbanization, ethnic composition, and in some specifications average levels of education and literacy. We also examine the effect of legal and political factors that were specific to public libraries, such as state library commissions and associations.

This paper examines the relationship between marriage and earnings inequality and the relationship between marriage and uncertainty in the labor market, as measured by long-run unemployment rates. We also examine the effects of inequality and uncertainty on other dependent variables concerning family structure (divorce, fertility). Our analysis shows that (i) with a slightly different specification, previous findings on the relationship between inequality and marriage rates do not hold up; (ii) uncertainty in the form of long term unemployment is shown to have a significantly negative effect on the marriage hazard and may be more relevant for explaining within-state changes in marriage rates than inequality; (iii) the uncertainty/inequality hypothesis holds up relatively well in comparison to other leading hypotheses, although none are able to explain more than a fraction of the trend in marriage; (iv) uncertainty negatively effects divorce rates, providing evidence that uncertainty discourages individuals from making major changes in their lives.

Using 2000 Census microdata on childhood immigrants, we relate family-formation variables to their age at arrival in the United States, and in particular whether that age fell within the critical period of language acquisition. We interpret the observed differences as an effect of English-language skills and construct an instrumental variable for English-language proficiency. Two-stage-least-squares estimates suggest that English proficiency raises the probabilities of marrying a native, being divorced, or having a high-earning and/or more educated spouse, and reduces the number of children.

This chapter documents the relative economic performance of low-skilled disadvantaged workers in the United States and identifies key factors that have either enhanced economic security or that have become increasingly important barriers to steady employment and self-sufficiency. Low-skilled men are currently participating in the labor force at rates that are extremely low by historical comparison, suggesting that procuring and maintaining steady employment has become a serious problem for this particular group. Moreover, this trend is only partially explained by the declining earnings. In addition, increasing proportions of low-skilled men are passing through the nation's prisons and jails, leaving behind a growing number of former inmates that face particularly challenges in finding employment and bettering themselves. This development has certainly had a negative effect on the life chances of many, especially among low-skilled minority men. I analyze and offer several policy proposals designed to boost the employment and earnings of the least skilled workers. First, I discuss several recent proposals to substantially expand the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) for childless adults, analyzing the likely costs, effects on take-home income, and the likely impacts on employment. Next, I offer several policy proposals intended to remove some of the educational and employment barriers that hinder the reentry of former prison inmates into mainstream non-institutionalized society. In particular, I propose: (1) removing summary disqualifications of former inmates from financial assistance for education or other public assistance; (2) basing publicly mandated employment bans of former felons for specific jobs on specific offenses rather than blanket bans; (3) expunging selected criminal records after a time period; (4) funding training intermediaries to prepare ex-inmates for employment.

This paper investigates how unauthorized immigrants' illegal status affects their children's scholastic achievement in the U.S. The answer to this question calls attention to the intergenerational consequence of the U.S. immigration legislation. In order to estimate the intergenerational effect of immigration status, two sources of bias need to be overcome: 1) the omitted variables that determine both parental immigration status and children's scholastic performance; and 2) misreporting in legal status among illegal immigrants. The biggest amnesty program in U.S. history (IRCA 1986) and a two-step semi-parametric method are used to estimate the misreporting rate, as well as to recover the treatment effect of truly having legal status. My empirical analysis using the data of the Los Angeles Family and Neighborhood Survey finds: Had the illegal Latina immigrant women who arrived in the U.S. during 1982-1986 migrated before 1982 and thus been granted legal status by IRCA, their children on average would have improved their math scores by 0.65 of a standard deviation and their reading scores by 0.50 of a standard deviation. The above results account for misreporting. The probability that the potential truly illegal Latina immigrant women misreport their legal status is estimated at around 0.46. This paper also finds that households' economic well-being, residential location, and residential instability are the three main mechanisms through which immigrants' legal status affects their children's scholastic performance. Keywords: Immigrant, legal status, educationJEL Classifications: J18, O15, R23

This report analyzes changes among the top five Latino national groups between 1990-2005 in the South Bronx neighborhoods of Mott Haven, Port Morris, Melrose, Longwood, and Hunts Point. It provides a profile of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics including population distribution, age, sex, homeownership, income, educational attainment, and employment. These characteristics are compared, whenever appropriate, with those of the other major racial/ethnic components of the population - non-Hispanic Whites, non-Hispanic Blacks, and Asians.

Over the last two decades, most of Californias population growth has been directly attributable to natural increase rather than migration, and this will remain the case for the foreseeable future. Births are the key component of natural increase and are determined by the number of women of childbearing ages and by fertility rates. In this issue of California Counts, we examine trends in fertility rates in order to develop a deeper understanding of this important source of population change.Fertility rates are higher in California than in any developed country in the world. This is partly due to the composition of the states population, which includes large numbers of foreign-born women, who tend to have more children than U.S.-born women. Thus, in addition to its direct contribution to state growth, migration also plays an important indirect role in its effect on fertility rates. Among foreign-born Latinas, total fertility ratesa measure of completed family sizeaverage 3.7 children per woman. In contrast, the states lowest fertility rates are among U.S.-born Asians, who have an average of 1.4 children per woman. Overall, the states total fertility rate has been fairly stable over the past 10 years and near the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.Later ages at marriage and improvements in educational and economic opportunities for women have led to later ages at childbearing and increases in childlessness. Birth rates of women in their early 40s have almost tripled over the past two decades. Remarkably, among U.S.-born Asians, fertility rates of women in their early 40s are now higher than fertility rates of teens. Still, these rates are relatively low, and 95 percent of women have completed their childbearing by age 40. For Asians and whites, birth rates now peak for women in their early 30s. Perhaps the same forces that have led to delayed childbearing have also led to substantial increases in childlessness. By 2006, almost one of every four California women in her early 40s was childless, a rate almost twice as high as in 1980 and probably the highest level in the states history.Unlike many nations in the world, neither California nor the United States has explicit policy goals regarding fertility, with the important exception of teen fertility. The content of policies and programs to reduce teen pregnancy is the subject of some debate. Teen birth rates have fallen rapidly in the United States and even more dramatically in California. By 2005, the states teen birth rates were at all-time lows, with especially large declines in rates for Latinas and African Americans.Recent trends suggest that the states overall fertility rate is fairly stable. The share of foreign-born women among all women of childbearing ages has leveled off at about one-third. For most ethnic groups, fertility rates are about the same or slightly lower than 10 years ago. Shifts in the declining share of whites, a low-fertility group, and increases in U.S.-born Latinos, a relatively high-fertility group, counteract the slight declines in ethnic-specific fertility rates. Thus, California Department of Finance projections of little change in fertility rates seem reasonable.

At the metropolitan level there is a striking negative correlation between residential racial segregation and population characteristics -- particularly for black residents -- but it is widely recognized that this correlation may not be causal. This paper provides a novel test of the causal relationship between segregation and population outcomes by exploiting the arrangements of railroad tracks in the 19th century to isolate plausibly exogenous variation in cities' susceptibility to segregation. I show that, conditional on miles of railroad track laid, the extent to which track configurations physically subdivided cities strongly predicts the level of segregation that ensued after the Great Migration of African-Americans to northern and western cities in the 20th century. At the start of the Great Migration, though, track configurations were uncorrelated with racial concentration, ethnic dispersion, income, industry, education, and population, indicating that reverse causality is unlikely. Instrumental variables estimates demonstrate that segregation leads to lower incomes and lower education among blacks. For whites, there is a mix of positive and negative effects: segregation decreases the probability of being a college graduate or a high earner, but also decreases the probability of being poor or unemployed. Segregation could generate these effects either by affecting human capital acquisition of residents of different races and socio-economic groups ('production') or by inducing sorting by race and SES into different cities ('selection'). This paper provides evidence that is most consistent with a combination of both production and selection.