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Title: Birth Rates in California

Citation Type: Journal Article

Publication Year: 2007

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Abstract: Over the last two decades, most of Californias population growth has been directly attributable to natural increase rather than migration, and this will remain the case for the foreseeable future. Births are the key component of natural increase and are determined by the number of women of childbearing ages and by fertility rates. In this issue of California Counts, we examine trends in fertility rates in order to develop a deeper understanding of this important source of population change.Fertility rates are higher in California than in any developed country in the world. This is partly due to the composition of the states population, which includes large numbers of foreign-born women, who tend to have more children than U.S.-born women. Thus, in addition to its direct contribution to state growth, migration also plays an important indirect role in its effect on fertility rates. Among foreign-born Latinas, total fertility ratesa measure of completed family sizeaverage 3.7 children per woman. In contrast, the states lowest fertility rates are among U.S.-born Asians, who have an average of 1.4 children per woman. Overall, the states total fertility rate has been fairly stable over the past 10 years and near the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.Later ages at marriage and improvements in educational and economic opportunities for women have led to later ages at childbearing and increases in childlessness. Birth rates of women in their early 40s have almost tripled over the past two decades. Remarkably, among U.S.-born Asians, fertility rates of women in their early 40s are now higher than fertility rates of teens. Still, these rates are relatively low, and 95 percent of women have completed their childbearing by age 40. For Asians and whites, birth rates now peak for women in their early 30s. Perhaps the same forces that have led to delayed childbearing have also led to substantial increases in childlessness. By 2006, almost one of every four California women in her early 40s was childless, a rate almost twice as high as in 1980 and probably the highest level in the states history.Unlike many nations in the world, neither California nor the United States has explicit policy goals regarding fertility, with the important exception of teen fertility. The content of policies and programs to reduce teen pregnancy is the subject of some debate. Teen birth rates have fallen rapidly in the United States and even more dramatically in California. By 2005, the states teen birth rates were at all-time lows, with especially large declines in rates for Latinas and African Americans.Recent trends suggest that the states overall fertility rate is fairly stable. The share of foreign-born women among all women of childbearing ages has leveled off at about one-third. For most ethnic groups, fertility rates are about the same or slightly lower than 10 years ago. Shifts in the declining share of whites, a low-fertility group, and increases in U.S.-born Latinos, a relatively high-fertility group, counteract the slight declines in ethnic-specific fertility rates. Thus, California Department of Finance projections of little change in fertility rates seem reasonable.

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Authors: Johnson, Hans P.

Periodical (Full): California Counts Population Trends and Profiles

Issue: 2

Volume: 9

Pages: 1-23

Data Collections: IPUMS CPS

Topics: Aging and Retirement, Education, Family and Marriage, Fertility and Mortality, Labor Force and Occupational Structure, Migration and Immigration

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