Community-rating regulations equalize the insurance premiums faced by the healthy and the unhealthy. Intended reductions in the unhealthys premiums can be undone, however, if the healthy forgo coverage. The severity of this adverse selection problem hinges largely on how health care costs are distributed across market participants. Theoretically, I show that Medicaid expansions can combat adverse selection by removing high cost individuals from the relevant risk pool. Empirically, I find that private coverage rates improved significantly in community-rated markets when states expanded Medicaids coverage of relatively unhealthy adults. The effects of these health policy instruments are fundamentally linked.

It is increasingly recognized that immigration laws affect immigrants' integration. Most recently there has been growing attention to how immigration enforcement affects families through forced separations caused by deportations and long-term family separations across national borders stemming from unauthorized entry to the United States. However, beyond enforcement, there has been little systematic account of how other provisions of immigration law contribute to family separations. In this article we examine how four key provisions in immigration law, far from creating conditions for immigrant families to reunite, contribute to keeping families apart. As such, these provisions shape, in fundamental ways, the structure and composition of immigrant families. Relying on data from the American Community Survey and ethnographic interviews in Phoenix, Arizona, we find evidence consistent with the premise that immigration laws affect the formation, composition, and structure of immigrant families with potential long-term consequences.

Most Americans know little about options for long-term services and supports and underestimate their likely future needs for such assistance. Using data from the 2012 National Health Interview Survey, we examined expectations about future use of long-term services and supports among adults ages 4065 and how these expectations varied by current living arrangement. We found differences by living arrangement in expectations about both future need for long-term services and supports and who would provide such care if needed. Respondents living with minor children were the least likely to expect to need long-term services and supports and to require paid care if the need arose. In contrast, respondents living alone were the most likely to expect that it was very likely that they would need long-term services and supports and to rely on paid care. Overall, we found a disconnect between expectations of use and likely future reality: 60 percent of respondents believed that they were unlikely to need long-term services and supports in the future, whereas the evidence suggests that nearly 70 percent of older adults will need them at some point. These findings both underscore the need for programs that encourage people to plan for long-term services and supports and indicate that information about living arrangements can be useful in developing and targeting such programs.

Fifty years after passage of the landmark law that rewrote U.S. immigration policy, nearly 59 million immigrants have arrived in the United States, pushing the country's foreign-born share to a near record 14%. For the past half-century, these modern-era immigrants and their descendants have accounted for just over half the nation's population growth and have reshaped its racial and ethnic composition. Looking ahead, new Pew Research Center U.S. population projections show that if current demographic trends continue, future immigrants and their descendants will be an even bigger source of population growth. Between 2015 and 2065, they are projected to account for 88% of the U.S. population increase, of 103 million people, as the nation grows to 441 million. These are some key findings of a new Pew Research analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data and new Pew Research U.S. population projections through 2065, which provide a 100-year look at immigration's impact on population growth and on racial and ethnic change. In addition, this report uses newly released Pew Research survey data to examine U.S. public attitudes toward immigration, and it employs census data to analyze changes in the characteristics of recently arrived immigrants and paint a statistical portrait of the historical and 2013 foreign-born populations.

Have Irish, German, or Italian settlers arriving in the United States at the turn of the twentieth century left a trace that determines differences in economic development to this day? Does the national origin of migrants matter for long-term development? This article explores whether the distinct geographic settlement patterns of European migrants according to national origin affected economic development across U.S. counties. It uses microdata from the 1880 and 1910 censuses in order to identify where migrants from different nationalities settled and then regresses current levels of economic development on settlement patterns according to national origin, using both ordinary least squares and instrumental variable approaches. The analysis controls for a number of factors that would have determined the attractiveness of different U.S. counties at the time of migration as well as current levels of development. The results indicate that while there is a strong and positive impact associated with overall migration, differences in the quality of the institutions of the countries of origin of the migrant are not necessarily a good predictor for current levels of economic development of U.S. counties.

Prevailing research pegs health status to a multitude of explanations, with many countries sharing almost similar experiences, depending on their development trajectory. There is consensus that fragility begets substandard health outcomes. This suggests that settings that are embroiled in fragility often experience increased morbid health and deaths (Guha-Sapir et al 2005). Alleviating these adverse health conditions requires addressing the underlying ills of state fragility. Yet, other researchers show that, net of other circumstances, the nature in which the health services are administered to the population substantially influences health (Bossert et al 2003; Bossert and Beauvais 2002). This strand of research emphasizes that good governance in healthcare fundamentally promotes good health. This dissertation augments these research efforts by spatially and periodically mapping child health conditions and linking differentiated health outcomes to health systems in Eastern Africa, focusing primarily on South Sudan and Ethiopia. Looking specifically at infants and children under the age of five, the central objective of this research is to generate empirical evidence that resonates with proximate child health policy interests in the region. This dissertation finds that certain events, such as war, development, spatial heterogeneity, and governance substantially impact health. Finally, the current research could benefit from possible improvements in a number of areas. Primarily, there is need to address one major caveat—lack of information at micro levels in both countries, i.e., local settings. Specifically, future research efforts should pay attention to generating necessary data at these levels for more distilled mortality analyses. In South Sudan, such levels would be counties, payams, and bomas and in Ethiopia, they would include woredas and kebeles. New insights would be useful in two ways. First, they could help map child health conditions at these subnational levels. Secondly, those results could be used to improve health policies at those levels. In addition, evaluating in detail environmental health conditions in South Sudan may help us shed light on urban-rural early age mortality differentials. As well, an analysis on whether peace crowds out humanitarian and international development investments is desired.

Introduction Legally mandated segregation policies dictated significant differences in the educational experiences of black and white Americans through the first half of the 20th century, with markedly lower quality in schools attended by black children. We determined whether school term length, a common marker of school quality, was associated with blood pressure and hypertension among a cohort of older Americans who attended school during the de jure segregation era. Methods National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey I and II data were linked to state level historical information on school term length. We used race and gender-stratified linear regression models adjusted for age, state and year of birth to estimate effects of term length on systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP) and hypertension for US-born adults. We also tested whether correcting years of schooling for term length differences attenuated estimated racial disparities. Results Among black women, 10% longer school term was associated with lower SBP, DBP and hypertension prevalence (2.1 mmHg, 1.0 mmHg, and 5.0 percentage points respectively). Associations for whites and for black men were not statistically significant. Adjustment for education incorporating corrections for differences in school term length slightly attenuated estimated racial disparities. Conclusions Longer school term length predicted better BP outcomes among black women, but not black men or whites.

This paper provides evidence that the average human capital of a labor market has a positive effect on individual human capital accumulation and wage growth over the life cycle. The return to experience in a labor market is found to be increasing in the share of workers with a bachelor's degree or more (college share) in the market. An instrumental variable and panel data with individual fixed effects are used to address the potential endogeneity of college share and the sorting of workers across labor markets respectively. The effect of the college share of a labor market is shown to persist after workers leave the market, suggesting that a larger college share raises the return to experience through the accumulation of human capital valuable in all markets. The findings provide an explanation for the higher returns to experience in large cities and rich countries documented recently in the literature.

Faced with diminishing prospects for a comprehensive immigration reform at the federal level, states have started to take immigration matters into their own hands. For example, many states have been mandating the use of employment verification (E-Verify) systems to confirm work eligibility. Some of the consequences of these E-Verify mandates remain unclear. In this article, we focus on the effect of anti-illegal immigrant laws on foreign investment. Specifically, we exploit the state-level and time variation in the enactment and implementation of E-Verify mandates to explore if punitive measures against the firm impact states' ability to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). We quantify FDI through the employment by U.S. affiliates owned by foreign firms. Our results suggest that E-Verify mandates adversely affect employment among these majority-owned U.S. affiliates and, therefore, work against states trying to attract FDI.

I analyze recent federal minimum wage increases using the Current Population Survey. The relevant minimum wage increases were differentially binding across states, generating natural comparison groups. I first estimate a standard difference-in-differences model on samples restricted to relatively low-skilled individuals, as described by their ages and education levels. I also employ a triple-difference framework that utilizes continuous variation in the minimum wage's bite across skill groups. In both frameworks, estimates are robust to adopting a range of alternative strategies, including matching on the size of states' housing declines, to account for variation in the Great Recession's severity across states. My baseline estimate is that this period's full set of minimum wage increases reduced employment among individuals ages 16 to 30 with less than a high school education by 5.6 percentage points. This estimate accounts for 43 percent of the sustained, 13 percentage point decline in this skill group's employment rate and a 0.49 percentage point decline in employment across the full population ages 16 to 64.

Using American Community Survey data for 21 cities, we find that if the immigrants who are eligible for naturalization became citizens, their earnings would increase 8.9 percent, and combined earnings for the 21 cities would increase $5.7 billion. Federal, state, and city tax revenue would increase $2.0 billion. Expenditures in government benefits would decline $34 million in New York City and increase $4 million in San Francisco. With an additional $789 million in taxes for New York City and $90 million for San Francisco, the net fiscal impact of naturalization on these two cities is overwhelmingly positive.

Hispanic students residing in the United States have historically been the lowestachieving ethnic group in public schools and have a high dropout rate. A stark comparison to those statistics can be found within the Knowledge is Power Program (KIPP) charter schools in San Antonio, Texas, which have a majority Hispanic student population that is thriving academically and advancing to college. Using the Search Institutes positive youth development theory, the purpose of this study was to (a) quantitatively explore how school climate moderates the relationship between Hispanic student acquisition of developmental assets and academic success at KIPP charter schools from the perspective of both students and staff members and (b) identify the catalysts for growth and academic success. The Search Institute surveys, Creating a Great Place to Learn and the Developmental Assets Profile, were used to collect data from 78 students (Grades 68) and 45 staff members at KIPP Aspire and Camino. A series of multiple regression analyses were conducted using Andrew F. Hayess PROCESS, a tool within SPSS, to explore moderation effects. School climates organizational attributes dimension had a significant moderation interaction between developmental assets (empowerment, boundaries and expectations, constructive use of time, positive values, and social competencies) and academic success (GPA). School climates relationships dimension significantly moderated (a) academic success and (b) social competencies, a developmental asset. Implications for positive social change include shaping future intervention programs and school initiatives to build positive school climates, increase academic and social well-being, and help Hispanic students achieve success in school.

The rate of long-term unemployment spiked during the Great Recession. To help explain this, I exploit the systematic and counter-cyclical differences in unemployment duration across occupations. This heterogeneity extends the tail of the unemployment duration distribution, which is necessary to account for the observed level of long- term unemployment and its increase since 2007. This paper introduces a model in which unemployment duration and occupation are linked; it measures the effects of occupation-specific shocks and skills on unemployment duration. Here, a worker will be paid more for human capital in his old occupation but a bad shock may make those jobs scarce. Still, their human capital partly “attaches” them to their prior occupation, even when searching there implies a longer expected duration. Hence, unemployment duration rises and becomes more dispersed across occupations. Redistributive shocks and business cycles, as in the Great Recession, exacerbate this effect. For quantitative discipline, the model matches data on the wage premium to occupa- tional experience and the co-movement of occupations’ productivity. The distribution of duration is then endogenous. For comparison’s sake, if a standard model with ho- mogeneous job seekers matches the job finding rate, then it also determines expected duration and understates it. That standard model implies just over half of the long- term unemployment in 1976-2007 and almost no rise in the recent recession. But, with heterogeneity by occupation, this paper nearly matches long-term unemployment in the period 1976-2007 and 70% of its rise during the Great Recession.

Existing studies of trust formation in U.S. metropolitan areas have found that trust is lower when there is more income inequality and greater racial fragmentation. I add to this literature by examining the role of income inequality between racial groups (racial income inequality). I find that greater racial income inequality reduces trust. Also, racial fragmentation is no longer a significant determinant of trust once racial income inequality is accounted for. I also show that racial income inequality has a more detrimental effect in more racially fragmented communities and that trust falls more in minority groups when racial income inequality increases. The results hold under both least squares and instrumental variable estimation.

The ratcheting up of immigration enforcement has resulted in a number of unintended consequences featured in the news, such as family separations. We focus on, yet, another potentially unintended consequence –namely the possibility of employment discrimination against Hispanics legally authorized to work following the implementation of employment verification (E-Verify) mandates. Using data from the 2002-2012 National Latino Surveys, we exploit the temporal and spatial variation in the adoption of E-Verify mandates to assess how they have impacted perceptions of discrimination held by U.S.-born and naturalized Hispanics –all clearly authorized to work. While E-Verify mandates should not adversely impact their employment and other opportunities, these individuals could be hurt if some employers avoid hiring them for fear they may be undocumented. We find that E-Verify mandates raise perceptions of discrimination at work among all four groups of Hispanic citizens we distinguish in this research. Our findings point to the complex dynamics surrounding immigration policy.

For many across the world, whether one has access to the benefits of electricity depends largely on the choices of governments and political leaders. This book offers and account of the intricate political motivations that shape leaders' decisions about how to deliver electricity and how elections influence the provision of these seemingly universal public goods. This project began as a doctoral dissertation under the wise counsel of Miriam Golden and Daniel Posner. I am ever thankful for their encouragement and support. I also thank the other members of my committee, Ronald Rogowski, Timothy Groseclose, and Frederico Finan.

Fifty years after the Equal Pay Act, the male-female salary gap has narrowed in many occupations. Yet pay inequality persists for certain occupations, including medicine and nursing. Studies have documented salary differences across clinical settings for diverse cohorts of physicians and higher salaries for male registered nurses (RNs). In nursing, analyses have not considered employment factors that could explain salary differences,6 have been cross-sectional, and have not been based on recent data. The objective of this study was to examine salaries of males and females in nursing over time and to include a more recent sample.

This paper documents that the dynamics of occupational segregation are highly nonlinear and exhibit tipping patterns. Occupations experience discontinuous declines in net male employment growth at tipping points ranging from 25% to 45% (from 13% to 30%) female in white-collar (blue-collar) occupations from 1940 to 1990. These patterns appear consistent with a Schelling (1971) social interaction model where tipping results from male preferences toward the fraction female in their occupation. Supporting the models predictions, evidence from the General Social Survey indicates that tipping points are lower in regions where males hold more sexist attitudes toward the appropriate role of women.

The current study examines earnings differences for practicing lawyers by undergraduate major with a focus on economics majors. Some majors do much better than others. Economics majors tend to do very well in both median and mean earnings, and both without and with controlling for individual characteristics. Electrical engineering, accounting, finance, and some other majors also do relatively well. This information is useful for undergraduates planning to attend law school and considering what undergraduate major field to study. Economics appears to be a very good option.

Purpose: Development and validation of a personalized breast cancer risk assessment model that includes automated measurement of breast density. Scope: Assemble a cohort of women with known breast cancer risk factors and digital mammogram files for women diagnosed with breast cancer using existing data sources and match them to controls (Harvey/Knaus). Validate and refine automated breast density software (Yaffe/Harvey). Build and validate the initial comprehensive model (Knaus/Yaffe/Harvey). Major Findings: During this first year, we have established messaging, IRB and CDMRP approval, and recruitment for this study. We have recruited over 1000 of our target 4000 women cohort. We have performed outlier correction for automated measurement of breast density, including two volumetric methods (CumulusV, Volpara), developed an automated area based density measurement, and have obtained very good correlation compared with the gold standard manual method.