The 2016 Presidential campaigns have led to divisive political discourse on the topic of immigration, particularly of Latinos. One aspect of this debate that is often overlooked is the importance of immigrants to the workforce that provides health and social services to an aging population. In large part due to the Baby Boomer generational cohort, the number of older adults requiring care continues to increase. At the same time, fertility rates in the U.S. remain low. Utilizing data from the U.S. Census Bureaus decennial census and American Community Survey (ACS), change in the composition of the healthcare and social service workforce was tracked over a 25-year period (1990-2014). The number of workers across a range of health and social service occupations grew from 9.7 million in 1990 to 18.2 million in 2014. Only three-quarters (73.0%) of this growth, however, was due to the U.S.-born population; immigrant workers made up a substantial portion of the growth of this workforce. Latinos made up 11.2% of this workforce in 2014, up from 5.4% in 1990. The proportion of the workforce that is Latino immigrants was relatively low in 2014 (3.9%), but this figure was up 267% from its 1990 level. Given low fertility and rapid increases in the aging population, the reliance of the healthcare and social service workforces on immigrants is likely to increase, suggesting that targeting immigrants with these skills and providing training for existing migrants may be useful tools to supporting an aging population.

There is no question that Florida and its 29 electoral votes will be critical for the victory of either party in the November 2016 presidential election and that Latinos will play a decisive role in determining the outcome in the state. The political importance of the states Latinos has increased significantly after 1990 because of extraordinary demographic transformations and high voter participation rates.

This paper examines labor supply adjustment both at the intensive (hours worked) and extensive (labor force participation) margins following financial market development. Theoretically, well functioning credit markets allow individuals to transfer resources and substitute leisure across states. Hence, individuals would behave (w.r.t. labor supply) differently under complete and incomplete credit markets. We exploit the staggered passage of bank branching deregulation in the U.S. to study the impact of relaxing credit constraints on labor supply decisions. The intensity of labor supply, on average, is about 0.3 hours lower after the reform (and about 0.5 hours lower after five years following deregulation). We also find deregulation's impact heterogeneity across income distribution and demographics. The effect of lifting branching prohibitions is most pronounced for the lower-middle income (marginal) group. Further, these findings indicate that blacks were facing higher effective loan prices than whites, suggesting the existence of both statistical and taste-based discriminations. In contrast, we find little to no evidence that deregulation has a significant impact on the extensive margin of participation.

Many geoscience disciplines utilize complex computational models for advancing understanding and sustainable management of Earth systems. Executing such models and their associated data preprocessing and postprocessing routines can be challenging for a number of reasons including (1) accessing and preprocessing the large volume and variety of data required by the model, (2) postprocessing large data collections generated by the model, and (3) orchestrating data processing tools, each with unique software dependencies, into workflows that can be easily reproduced and reused. To address these challenges, the work reported in this paper leverages the Workflow Structured Object functionality of the Integrated Rule-Oriented Data System and demonstrates how it can be used to access distributed data, encapsulate hydrologic data processing as workflows, and federate with other community-driven cyberinfrastructure systems. The approach is demonstrated for a study investigating the impact of drought on populations in the Carolinas region of the United States. The analysis leverages computational modeling along with data from the Terra Populus project and data management and publication services provided by the Sustainable Environment-Actionable Data project. The work is part of a larger effort under the DataNet Federation Consortium project that aims to demonstrate data and computational interoperability across cyberinfrastructure developed independently by scientific communities.

This paper contrasts the work experiences of two groups of Latin American immigrant women (Mexicans and Dominicans) in two subsectors of reproductive services in the home (domestic work and care). It highlights the socio-institutional and socio-demographic factors framing the experience. Precarious working conditions, sanctioned by the institutionality of the labor-regime and the domestic sphere as a workplace, are the factors that lend the greatest continuity to these experiences. The dissimilarities are derived from the interplay between immigration status and labor regime due to the different roles played by these two migratory flows in the context of Latin American migration to the United States, certain socio-demographic traits of the societies of origin, and the differential subjective meaning attributed to such activities.

Life course study relies for its empirical basis on the longitudinal surveys that supply the means of charting the development of individuals through their lives. Understanding the institutionalisation of life course study is thus inextricably linked with uncovering the reasons for the development of longitudinal inquiry. The chapter starts with the origins of the concept of ‘life course’ then moves to a brief historical overview of first the early (pre-war) longitudinal studies, then the substantial expansion of studies (post war), and finally the post-millennium contemporary studies, attracting major public investment to build longitudinal “research resources.” The reasons for the expansion are sought in the three areas of technological, methodological, and theoretical change. A discussion of the consolidation and then institutionalisation of the field of study follows leading to an examination of the origins of first the Journal and then the Society for Longitudinal and Life Course Studies. Future prospects are finally considered together with such major challenges as sample attrition, data protection, and the development of longitudinal inquiry to meet contemporary circumstances and needs.

For decades, migration economics has stressed the effects of migration restrictions on income distribution in the host country. Recently the literature has taken a new direction by estimating the costs of migration restrictions to global economic efficiency. In contrast, a new strand of research posits that migration restrictions could be not only desirably redistributive, but in fact globally efficient. This is the new economic case for migration restrictions. The case rests on the possibility that without tight restrictions on migration, migrants from poor countries could transmit low productivity ("A" or Total Factor Productivity) to rich countries – offsetting efficiency gains from the spatial reallocation of labor from low to high-productivity places. We provide a novel assessment, proposing a simple model of dynamically efficient migration under productivity transmission and calibrating it with new macro and micro data. In this model, the case for efficiency-enhancing migration barriers rests on three parameters: transmission, the degree to which origin-country total factor productivity is embodied in migrants; assimilation, the degree to which migrants' productivity determinants become like natives' over time in the host country; and congestion, the degree to which transmission and assimilation change at higher migrant stocks. On current evidence about the magnitudes of these parameters, dynamically efficient policy would not imply open borders but would imply relaxations on current restrictions. That is, the new efficiency case for some migration restrictions is empirically a case against the stringency of current restrictions.

The Latino electorate, citizens who are 18 years of age and older and thus eligible to vote, is projected to be approximately 28 million persons for the 2016 presidential election. However, because of low registration rates, about 58% of eligible voters in every presidential election between 1992 and 2012, only 48% of potential Latino voters (13.5 million) will in all likelihood actually cast ballots to choose the next president of the United States. Eligible Latino voters are concentrated in relatively few states. California alone accounts for nearly 27% of the Latino electorate; Texas nearly 19%; and Florida slightly over 10%. New York at 7.4% is fourth; Arizona (3.9%) fifth; Illinois (3.7%) sixth; and New Jersey (3.3%) seventh. These seven states account for three-quarters of all eligible Latino voters in the U.S. However with the exception of Florida, which was won by President Obama by 0.9% of the popular vote in 2012, each of the other six states are expected to be won by one party or the other by large margins in 2016 and are not in play. Floridas 29 electoral votes will be a major objective of the Republican and Democratic candidates, and there is no question that the Latino vote will be a decisive factor in Florida.

According to official estimates, between 2003 and 2012, the share of rural children living in poor families rose from 20.1 percent to 26.7 percent, its highest level since at least 1968. According to ERS research, 35 percent of this increase in rural child poverty was due to declining average family income, 24 percent stemmed from demographically driven changes in the distribution of income, and the remaining 41 percent of the increase may be attributed to other changes in the distribution of incomenamely, faster-than-average income declines for families near the poverty linethat cannot be explained by demographic shifts, and that occurred despite rising educational attainment. Between 2012 and 2014, average real incomes for urban and rural families with children grew by about 6 percent, approximately returning to their 2003 levels. This income growth has reduced poverty, but the rise in income inequality since 2003 has not been reversed, and this growing inequality has limited the extent of poverty reduction in both urban and rural counties. As a result, urban and rural child poverty rates remain 3 to 4 percentage points above their 2003 levels.

Background: There is concern that medical marijuana laws (MMLs) could negatively affect adolescents. To better understand these policies, we assess how adolescent exposure to MMLs is related to educational attainment. Methods: Data from the 2000 Census and 2001-2014 American Community Surveys were restricted to individuals who were of high school age (1418) between 1990 and 2012 (n = 5,483,715). MML exposure was coded as: (i) a dichotomous any MML indicator, and (ii) number of years of high school age exposure. We used logistic regression to model whether MMLs affected: (a) completing high school by age 19; (b) beginning college, irrespective of completion; and (c) obtaining any degree after beginning college. A similar dataset based on the Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) was also constructed for confirmatory analyses assessing marijuana use. Results: MMLs were associated with a 0.40 percentage point increase in the probability of not earning a high school diploma or GED after completing the 12th grade (from 3.99% to 4.39%). High school MML exposure was also associated with a 1.84 and 0.85 percentage point increase in the probability of college non-enrollment and degree non-completion, respectively (from 31.12% to 32.96% and 45.30% to 46.15%, respectively). Years of MML exposure exhibited a consistent dose response relationship for all outcomes. MMLs were also associated with 0.85 percentage point increase in daily marijuana use among 12th graders (up from 1.26%). Conclusions: Medical marijuana law exposure between age 14 to 18 likely has a delayed effect on use and education that persists over time.

Des centaines De milliers De canaDiens français qui ont pris la « route Des États » entre 1840 et 1930, une bonne partie, soit plus Du cinquième, ignor la nouvelle- angleterre pour se Diriger vers les « pays D’en Haut », frÉquentÉs sans interruption Depuis l’Époque De la nouvelle-france. ces liens renouvelÉs avec le bassin Des granDs lacs conDuiront plusieurs Dizaines De milliers De migrants, surtout Du quÉbec mais aussi De l’ontario, à cHoisir comme Destination l’un ou l’autre Des États De la granDe rÉgion Du miDwest États-unien

This paper attempts to systematically look at the differences in wages earned between male workers belonging to various caste and religious identities in India, and how that has changed over time. I use data from seven different rounds of National Sample Survey (NSS) to investigate the wage differences that accrue due to different caste and religious identities. I find that Indian Muslim men earn slightly lower wages compared to their upper-caste Hindu counterparts, and this difference has grown slightly over the period of 1983 to 2011. However, this difference is not uniform across all location, education and worker categories. While there are hardly any differences in wages earned between Muslim workers and upper-caste Hindu workers for unskilled labourers, for more educated salaried workers, the differences are high especially in urban areas. A similar pattern emerges for workers of lower-castes, although their earnings in many cases are even lower than Muslim workers. Lack of entrepreneurship among the urban Muslims and lower-caste Hindus in the formal sector might be responsible for their plights. Policies that encourage skill development and development of entrepreneurship among Muslims and especially lower-caste Hindus in the formal sector will help alleviating the conditions of these demographic groups.

Slave emancipation and falling land values in the US South after the Civil War generated a large wealth loss for white southerners. Households that faced greater exposure to this wealth shock because of their initial asset allocation and/or residence in an affected county held less wealth in 1870. Sons of affected fathers had lower occupation-based earnings at age 30 and to a lesser extent at age 50, both within and outside of agriculture. Our estimates imply an elasticity between fathers wealth and sons income of 0.15 (at age 30) and 0.04 (at age 50).

Immigration into the U.S. is unevenly distributed across its different states. Although the share of the foreign-born population in the U.S. as a whole is 14.2 percent, that of individual states ranges from a high of 28.1 percent in California to a low of 1.9 percent in West Virginia.1 These differences factor into policy debates. For example, tax revenue that is collected from immigrants and taxpayer money that is spent on immigrants affect states budgets. In this article, we first discuss some factors that can influence the level of immigration to a state; then, we present some facts regarding immigration levels in different states.

Opponents of prevailing wage laws claim that repealing or weakening the wage policy will save taxpayer dollars, yet 75% of recent peer-reviewed studies indicate that construction costs are not affected by prevailing wages. However, the absence of prevailing wages increases taxpayer burdens by increasing the likelihood that construction workers will earn incomes below the poverty level, become more dependent on public assistance, and will not have health insurance and retirement benefits. Furthermore, prevailing wages perform an important economic development function by reducing the leakage of construction funds, jobs, income, and spending from the local economy. Weakening or repealing prevailing wages does not reduce construction costs, but increases poverty and decreases economic activity. In fact, weakening or repealing state-level prevailing wage laws in the 25 states that currently have strong or average wage policies would have negative economic, fiscal, and social impacts on the U.S. economy. This study is a data-driven examination of prevailing wage laws with the economic impacts and statistical analysis of construction worker labor market outcomes based on information from the U.S. Census Bureau (the Current Population Survey, American Community Survey, and the Economic Census of Construction) and the National Health Expenditures Survey. The economic impact results are obtained from IMPLAN, an input-output model that is based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. All of the quantitative analyses presented in this report are reproducible. The review of the research on prevailing wages and construction costs distinguishes between those studies that were peer reviewed and those studies that were not examined by experts prior to publication.

I extend the business cycle accounting methodology to a setting of a monetary union. I create a novel dataset on prices, wages, employment, net assets, and consumption that using both aggregate and regional data allows for the application of the methodology at three di↵erent levels of geographic aggregation: states, MSAs, and counties. Applied to the Great Recession at the state level, the business cycle accounting exercise provides two main findings. First, for 40 out of 48 states the labor wedge played a primary role in accounting for the di↵erences between employment at the state level and employment at the aggregate level. Second, for 42 states the intertemporal wedge played a prominent role in accounting for the di↵erences between consumption at the state level and consumption at the aggregate level. These results suggest that models using regional variation to study the business cycle of the Great Recession would need mechanisms generating fluctuations in more than one wedge to account for relative fluctuations in employment and consumption of a given region; however, in principle, such mechanisms need not be di↵erent for di↵erent regions.

This overview first provides a sense of the extent of immigration into the U.S. and into the Federal Reserves Eighth District, served by the St. Louis Fed. Second, the source areas for immigrants coming to the U.S. and, more specifically, to the District, are identified. Regarding District immigrants, we restricted our attention to the four largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), which are St. Louis, Memphis, Louisville and Little Rock. We compared these MSAs with the nation and also with the Chicago MSA, which is outside the District but is a good benchmark for comparison with District MSAs.

The post-World War II witnessed the largest housing boom in recent history. The objective of this paper is to develop a quantitative equilibrium model of tenure choice to analyze the key determinants in the co-movement between home ownership and house prices over the period 1940 to 1960. The parameterized model is consistent with key aggregate and distributional features observed in the 1940 U.S. economy and is capable of accounting for the observed postwar housing boom. The paper shows, both theoretically and quantitatively, that the key to explaining the comovement is an asymmetric productivity change that favors the goods sector relative to the construction sector. Other factors such as demographics, income risk, and government policy are important determinants of the home ownership rate but have relatively small eects on housing prices.