Macroeconomic analysis of inequality and intergenerational mobility typically abstracts from the role of endogenous childhood development. This paper shows that this omission is not innocuous. It extends the standard general-equilibrium heterogeneous-agent life-cycle model with earnings risk and credit constraints to incorporate endogenous early childhood investments (parental time and money), family transfers, and college education. Agents cannot invest in their own childhood development or pay their parents to do so, which can lead to inefficiently low levels of investments. Estimating the model to match key moments of the data (e.g., average childhood investments and returns to skills), we find that a government program that funds early childhood investments would reduce inequality by 20% and improve mobility by 60%, as well as yield a three times larger welfare increase than a government transfer that uses the equivalent revenue. Introducing these investments in the model as a short-run small-scale policy—as in an RCT—would underestimate the benefits by two-thirds. Long-run distribution changes are the main drivers of the differences in welfare and mobility outcomes, while general-equilibrium is important for the reduction of inequality. The paper also shows that by taking a temporary deficit to afford these investments in the transition, the government is able to increase the welfare of every new generation.

There is an extensive literature discussing how individuals' marriage behavior changes as a country develops. However, no existing data set allows an explicit investigation of the relationship between marriage and economic development. In this paper, we construct new cross-country panel data on marital statistics for 16 OECD countries from 1900 to 2000, in order to analyze such a relationship. We use this data set, together with cross-country data on real GDP per capita and the value added share of agriculture, manufacturing, and services sectors, to document two novel stylized facts. First, the fraction of a country's population that is married displays a hump-shaped relationship with the level of real GDP per capita. Second, the fraction of the married correlates positively with the share of manufacturing in GDP. We conclude that the stage of economic development of a country is a key factor that affects individuals' family formation decisions.

That prenatal events can have life-long consequences is now well established. Nevertheless, research on the fetal origins hypothesis is flourishing and has expanded to include the early childhood (postnatal) environment. Why does this literature have a "second act?" We summarize the major themes and contributions driving the empirical literature since our 2011 reviews, and try to interpret the literature in light of an overarching conceptual framework about how human capital is produced early in life. One major finding is that relatively mild shocks in early life can have substantial negative impacts, but that the effects are often heterogeneous reflecting differences in child endowments, budget constraints, and production technologies. Moreover, shocks, investments, and interventions can interact in complex ways that we are only beginning to be understood. Many advances in our knowledge are due to increasing accessibility of comprehensive administrative data that allow events in early life to be linked to long-term outcomes. Yet, we still know relatively little about the interval between, and thus about whether it would be feasible to identify and intervene with affected individuals at some point between early life and adulthood. We do know enough, however, to be able to identify some interventions that hold promise for improving child outcomes in early life and throughout the life course.

New estimates from the 2016 Elder Economic Security StandardTM Index highlight the high risk of economic insecurity experienced by older adults, a risk that is especially high for racial and ethnic minorities. The Gerontology Institute compares the 2016 household incomes for adults age 65 and above living in one- and two-person households to the 2016 Elder Economic Security StandardTM Index for each state and Washington, DC to calculate Elder Economic Insecurity Rates (EEIRs), the percentage of independent older adults age 65 or older living in households with annual incomes that do not support economic security. The EEIRs allow state and local governments to better understand and benchmark how many and which groups of older adults are at risk of financial instability. National averages suggest that among older adults living alone, half of non-Hispanic Whites, along with 61% of Asians, two-thirds of African Americans, and nearly three-quarters of Hispanics have annual incomes below the Elder Index. The risk of economic insecurity is lower among couples than among singles, but is still substantially higher for racial and ethnic minorities than for non-Hispanic Whites. Together, these estimates suggest that nationally, a minimum of 10 million adults age 65 or older struggle to make ends meet, facing financial challenges in their efforts to age in place and in community.

This study explored how changes in neighborhood structural characteristics predicted variation in gang versus non-gang homicides in a policing division of the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD). Longitudinal negative binomial models were examined to test the relationship between-neighborhood structural covariates with gang and non-gang homicides over a 35-year period. This study highlights the potential to estimate temporal effects not captured by cross-sectional analyses alone. The results underscore a unique feature that distinguishes gang homicides from other forms of non-gang violence, its tenacious clustering, and spatial dependence over time.

The following article surveys Afghan refugees’ integration into the United States during the 1980s and 90s. It examines some of the difficulties they faced in the United States and their efforts to build institutions to sustain and enrich their lives in the United States. Throughout this period, many Afghans also sought opportunities to contribute to Afghanistan’s welfare. Furthermore, the persistence of war inhibited return to Afghanistan. As integration into U.S. society increased during the decade, Afghans in the United States increasingly began to conceive of themselves as “Afghan Americans” with a lasting future in the country.

Modern residential land development has trended toward densification, resulting in limited space to plant shade trees. As a result, shade trees are often planted in sub-optimal locations around homes for energy conservation benefits. Using a simulation program called EnergyPlus, we examined the effects of existing trees on energy consumption of recently constructed homes in three U.S. cities with distinctly different climates: Metro Minneapolis, MN, Charlotte, NC, and Metro Orlando, FL. We used remote sensing to identify placement of existing trees around homes, revealing that there were 1.5 to 2.9 trees within 15 m of the homes on average. When modeled as large-stature deciduous trees in the simulator, existing trees provided average annual energy savings per parcel of 14 kWh (MN), 25 kWh (NC), and 44 kWh (FL). We then tested an alternative tree placement strategy that spatially reconfigured the existing trees, based on parcel orientation, to both minimize space conflicts and maximize energy savings. This alternative strategy optimized the placement of over 70% of the existing trees and significantly improved annual energy savings per parcel to 57 kWh (MN), 47 kWh (NC), and 103 kWh (FL). In Metro Orlando, the impact of optimization on annual energy savings across our sampling frame was 574,000 kWh. Although our alternative strategy was no more effective than the conventional strategy (always plant a shade tree on the west aspect). It is more responsive to space constraints and therefore can guide developers and homeowners more practically toward optimal tree placement for energy conservation.

Objective: To use novel geographic methods and large-scale claims data to identify the local distribution of pediatric chronic diseases in New York City. Methods: Using a 2009 all-payer emergency claims database, we identified the proportion of unique children aged 0 to 17 with diagnosis codes for specific medical and psychiatric conditions. As a proof of concept, we compared these prevalence estimates to traditional health surveys and registry data using the most geographically granular data available. In addition, we used home addresses to map local variation in pediatric disease burden. Results: We identified 549,547 New York City children who visited an emergency department at least once in 2009. Though our sample included more publicly insured and uninsured children, we found moderate to strong correlations of prevalence estimates when compared to health surveys and registry data at prespecified geographic levels. Strongest correlations were found for asthma and mental health conditions by county among younger children (0.88, P = .05 and 0.99, P < .01, respectively). Moderate correlations by neighborhood were identified for obesity and cancer (0.53 and 0.54, P < .01). Among adolescents, correlations by health districts were strong for obesity (0.95, P = .05), and depression estimates had a nonsignificant, but strong negative correlation with suicide attempts (-0.88, P = .12). Using SaTScan, we also identified local hot spots of pediatric chronic disease. Conclusions: For conditions easily identified in claims data, emergency department surveillance may help estimate pediatric chronic disease prevalence with higher geographic resolution. More studies are needed to investigate limitations of these methods and assess reliability of local disease estimates.

The effect of immigration shocks on native workers in a labor niche remains an open question. We test how workers in the farm and nonfarm sectors were affected by the establishment of Russian Jewish agricultural colonies in southern New Jersey in the late nineteenth century. By following the same individuals across the 1880 and 1910 US censuses, we avoid making assumptions about the substitutability of immigrants and native workers. Russian Jews established themselves as farmers or factory workers with the help of international aid societies. Many native workers increased their occupational standing by transitioning to occupations complementary to agricultural and semi-skilled factory work, the immigrants main niches. We see no impact on farmers, likely due to the structure of agricultural markets. We also find a decreased probability of out-migration for natives living near a successful agricultural colony, with occupational upgrading concentrated among stayers.

This research examines the relationship between legal status and oral health care among Mexican-origin children. Using the 2001–2014 California Health Interview Surveys, the objectives are: (1) to demonstrate population-level changes in the legal statuses of parents, the legal statuses of children, and the likelihood of receiving dental care; (2) to reveal how the roles of legal status boundaries in dental care are changing; and (3) to determine whether the salience of these boundaries is attributable to legal status per se. The results reveal increases in the native-born share and dental care utilization for the total Mexican-origin population. Although dental care was primarily linked to parental citizenship early in this period, parental legal statuses are no longer a unique source of variation in utilization (despite the greater likelihood of insurance among citizens). These results imply that future gains in utilization among Mexican-origin children will mainly come from overcoming barriers to care among the native born.

This paper constructs a descriptive profile of the multiracial Asian population in the United States by focusing on the types of identity issues the population faces and their social implications for the population’s participation in U.S. society. Through an analysis of the literature, I identify the factors that are salient in the formation of identity in multiracial Asian individuals and what the emergence of this population means for the U.S. racial hierarchy. The findings support Bonilla-Silva’s (2004) view that we may be seeing the emergence of a tri- racial hierarchy in the United States.

In the academic libraries' efforts to support digital humanities and social science, GIS service plays an important role. However, there is no general service model existing about how libraries can develop GIS services to best engage with digital humanities and social science. In this study, we adopted the action research method to develop and improve our service model. Our results suggested that a library's GIS service can support humanities and social science from the research collaboration, learning support, and outreach perspectives, with different focuses according to the stages of learning and research. The research framework adopted in this study not only can serve as an efficient tool for developing GIS services but also can be expanded to other library service areas.

After witnessing the success of Canadian strategies to attract U.S. film production in the 1990s, states and localities began offering financial incentives in an effort to lure film and video production away from their traditional hubs in California and New York (Christopherson & Rightor, 2010). This effort increased dramatically in the 2000s, both in scope and in scale. Production activity can now locate in states offering rebates of up to 40 percent of costs, even if this exceeds their actual tax bills, and all but a handful of states offer some form of tax incentives (Christopherson & Rightor, 2010; Katz & Rosenthal, 2006; National Conference of State Legislatures, 2011; Vock, 2008). While some states may be reducing incentive packages in the current climate of fiscal austerity, others are doubling down on that strategy as an effort to stimulate job growth and increased economic activity. And while most states tout many successes from these programs in both metrics, the question of whether such policies promote long-term sustainable economic development has not been fully answered. First I use theoretical literature to construct a model of sustainable industrial development. I will then test this model using a variety of methods and data sets at the national, and state and county levels. In the following two analytical chapters, I will evaluate the impacts of incentives on state- level employment and firm growth, followed by an assessment of the economic effects of incentives in one such state: Georgia. By using this variety of approaches and units of analysis, I hope to shed light on both the macro- and micro-level impacts such incentives have on the industrial economic development of states. In the first study, I use data from the County Business Patterns (CBP) over the years 2002- 2013 to view changes in economic activity by state by the level of incentives offered. Using panel data for industry employment, establishment and occupational employment, I use a fixed and random effects regression models to view the relationship between the presence of incentives and the levels of employment and firms in the film industry of each state. Next, I use Georgia as a case study with which to evaluate the degree to which financial incentives for the motion picture industry can create a sustainable network of local firms and workers. I test these theories by using confidential QCEW data to analyze establishment-level activity and relative locations. The results neither completely confirm nor disprove the hypothesis that attracting mobile productions with state tax incentives can establish a nascent industry and generate long-term employment in a region. However, there is some evidence that the number of years the MPIs are in effect does have a positive impact, especially on establishments and occupations. Additionally, the states’ climate and transportation access relative to Los Angeles and other locations are important factors in building a local industry.

There is an urgent need to improve reproductive health (RH) in Nigeria - the most populous country in Africa. In 2015, Nigeria had the highest number of maternal deaths in the world. This study assessed the trends in select RH indicators in Nigeria over two decades. Data used were from Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHS) conducted between 1990 and 2013. The NDHS uses a two-stage cluster sampling design to select nationally representative samples of reproductive-age women. The study sample ranged from 7620 to 38,948 women aged 15-49 across the five surveys. Trends in modern contraceptive prevalence rate, skilled antenatal care, skilled birth attendance, and adolescent birth were assessed. The results show increasing trends in modern contraceptive prevalence rate from 4% in 1990 to 11% in 2013 (p<.001); in skilled antenatal care from 57% in 1990 to 61% in 2013 (p<.001); and in skilled birth attendance from 31% in 1990 to 40% in 2013 (p<.001). The trend in adolescent birth decreased from 24% in 1990 to 17% in 2013 (p<.001). Marked disparities exist as rural, poor, and less educated women bear the greatest burden. Interventions should target the at-risk populations to improve their access and use of RH services.

Costa and Kahn [2000] documented that power couples tended to be located in large cities, postulating a need to solve a colocation problem peculiar to dual-career, highly-educated spouses. Using data from the 2008-2014 American Community Surveys, I find that while the point estimates indicate that young full-power couples are more likely to move to larger, better-educated cities than couples in which just the husband has a college degree, and wife-only power couples more likely than couples in which neither spouse has a college degree, the differences are statistically significant only compared with medium-size cities. Possession of an advanced degree by the wife matters more consistently for choice of city size. I also find that the wife's degree matters with respect to the human capital composition of cities. Finally, I present new evidence that larger cities improve joint husband-and-wife career outcomes as measured by occupational attainment, and that the degree of improvement is greater when the wife has a college degree, holding constant whether the husband has a degree.

U.S. Government support for minority owned banks (MOBs) dates to the late 1960s. Evidence through the early 1990s suggested these banks are relatively inefficient. This study updates that research, using Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) and panel data from 2003 to 2014 on minority owned banks and other banks. It is, as far as we know, the first such study to exclude outliers in SFA estimation, while recovering the outliers for efficiency estimation. Initial results identify a disruption in cost efficiency during 2008, with statistically distinct regimes for 2003–2007 and 2009–2014. Including recovered observations alters the patterns of MOB efficiency in significant ways, and leads us to conclude that current MOB inefficiency is mainly limited to Asian American owned and Multi-racial and minority serving banks. Tests for the effects of government deposits under a U.S. Treasury program suggest these did not adversely effect efficiency among covered MOBs, but may have improved survival rates for those MOBs subsequent to the financial collapse.

Over the course of this year, we’ll be interviewing some of the speakers from the upcoming 2018 CWI conference about their talks. Today we are speaking with William Marvel, an independent scholar of mid-19th-century American History. Marvel is the author of eighteen books, including most recently, Lincoln’s Mercenaries: Economic Motivation among Union Soldiers, which is due for release by LSU Press in the early fall of 2018. Some of Marvel’s additional publications include: Lincoln’s Autocrat: The Life of Edwin Stanton (UNC Press, 2015), A Place Called Appomattox (UNC Press, 2000), and Andersonville: The Last Depot (UNC Press, 1994), for which he won a Lincoln Prize, the Douglas Southall Freeman History Award, and the Malcolm and Muriel Barrow Bell Award. He has also written a four-volume history of the Civil War that was published by Houghton Mifflin between 2006 and 2011. Mr. Marvel is currently working on a biography of Fitz John Porter.

This paper documents and explains the striking rise in the proclivity of college-educated individuals to reside near city centers since 2000. We show that this recent urban revival is driven almost entirely by younger college graduates in larger cities. With a residential choice model, we quantify the role of jobs, amenities, and house prices in explaining this trend. We find that the rising taste of young college graduates for non-tradable service amenities like restaurants and nightlife accounts for more than 40 percent of their movement toward city centers. Complementary data shows a corresponding rise in young college graduate expenditures on and trips to non-tradable services. We then link changes in both consumption and urbanization to secular trends of top income growth and delayed family formation amongst young college graduates.