The economic and mortality impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have been widely discussed, but there is limited evidence on their relationship across demographic and geographic groups. We use publicly available monthly data from January 2011 through April 2020 on all-cause death counts from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and employment from the Current Population Survey to estimate excess all-cause mortality and employment displacement in April 2020 in the United States. We report results nationally and separately by state and by age group. Nationally, excess all-cause mortality was 2.4 per 10,000 individuals (about 30% higher than reported COVID deaths in April) and employment displacement was 9.9 per 100 individuals. Across age groups 25 y and older, excess mortality was negatively correlated with economic damage; excess mortality was largest among the oldest (individuals 85 y and over: 39.0 per 10,000), while employment displacement was largest among the youngest (individuals 25 to 44 y: 11.6 per 100 individuals). Across states, employment displacement was positively correlated with excess mortality (correlation = 0.29). However, mortality was highly concentrated geographically, with the top two states (New York and New Jersey) each experiencing over 10 excess deaths per 10,000 and accounting for about half of national excess mortality. By contrast, employment displacement was more geographically spread, with the states with the largest point estimates (Nevada and Michigan) each experiencing over 16 percentage points employment displacement but accounting for only 7% of the national displacement. These results suggest that policy responses may differentially affect generations and geographies.

Whether a person receives a college degree determines her outcomes in adulthood, including her job prospects, wages, ability to create generational wealth, and quality of life. But there are large gaps in postsecondary attainment based on race or ethnicity, gaps that at least partly account for pervasive and enduring gaps in economic outcomes. It is therefore important to understand how different racial and ethnic groups are represented in postsecondary education.

The growing economic similarity of spouses has contributed to rising income inequality across households. Explanations have typically centered on assortative mating, but recent work has argued that changes in women’s employment and spouses’ division of paid work have played a more important role. Using three U.S. nationally representative surveys, we examine the role of parenthood in spouses’ earnings correlations between 1968-2015, asking to what extent: (1) changes in spouses’ earnings correlations are due to changes before versus after first birth; (2) changes in spouses’ pre-birth correlations are due to changes in assortative mating versus shifting roles in marriage, and (3) observed trends have been driven by changes in women’s employment. We find that parenthood is an increasingly important mechanism, with growing economic similarity after 1990 due almost entirely to changes following parenthood. Prior to 1990, changes in economic similarity before parenthood played a larger role, although these were not driven by assortative mating at the time of marriage. Instead, we show that increases in women’s employment within marriage explain the rise of both pre- and post-birth similarity. An assessment of the aggregate-level implications points to the growing significance of earnings similarity after parenthood for rising income inequality across families.

The federally funded Early Head Start (EHS) and Head Start (HS) programs have provided early childhood education opportunities and comprehensive supports for low-income children and families since 1995 and 1965, respectively. This report examines the strengths and needs of children and families served by EHS and HS in the District of Columbia. In alignment with the Head Start Program Performance Standards (HSPPS), which require grantees to conduct a community needs assessment every five years, this report will present information about the number of eligible children and families and their demographics, including children experiencing homelessness, children in foster care, and children with disabilities and developmental delays; the strengths and needs of the eligible population of children and families; and the resources available to these children and families. The report will conclude with considerations for the DC Office of the State Superintendent of Education (OSSE)—who oversees early childhood programs throughout DC—on approaches for allocating resources to best support the needs of EHS- and HS-eligible families.

Across the US, tiny-home communities are being piloted to house people experiencing homelessness. One new community is taking shape in Bozeman, Montana: Housing First Village (HFV). HFV partners seek to draw upon best practices to create permanent supportive housing (PSH) for people experiencing chronic homelessness through a trauma-informed tiny-home community with service supports. This report covers progress during the first year of HFV implementation, sharing lessons, reflecting on challenges, analyzing progress, and recommending areas where HFV implementation could more closely align with PSH and tiny-home models: Permanent supportive housing best practices include targeting improved outcomes for people experiencing chronic homelessness or at risk of homelessness, engaging housing and health partners in regular communication and collaboration, thoughtfully siting the housing within the larger community close to services and amenities, designing the housing to reduce trauma, securing financing for housing and services, and aligning services with resident needs. Tiny homes are 400 square feet or smaller, can be on wheels or a permanent foundation, and should be built to local building standards. Although the tiny-home movement appears to be led by young, white tiny-home owners, owners are more diverse, and new communities for people experiencing homelessness are cropping up across the US to provide permanent and transitional housing and services. The efficacy of this model of housing and services for people experiencing homelessness has not been extensively evaluated.

In this thesis, I test my central hypothesis that aggregate economic fluctuations (business cycles) affect intergenerational economic mobility (American dreams). I exploit heterogeneity across U.S. state-level business cycles. I argue that these cycles impose countercyclical credit constraints on households that rely on credit to invest in the human capital of their children. Thus, credit constraints effectively limit the skills and expected earnings of children. I focus on an empirical measure of absolute mobility that Chetty et al. (2017) propose: the rate of absolute income mobility, which measures the fraction of adult children who earn more than their parents earned, conditional on the parent’s income rank in their income distribution. My dataset includes state-level rates of absolute income mobility for children in the birth cohorts 1950, 1960, 1970, and 1980. My panel regressions pair state-level estimates of the rate of absolute income mobility for a particular birth cohort—the dependent variable—with statelevel measures of the business cycle during the decade following the cohort year, when the child is heavily dependent on their parent. I find that average cyclical fluctuations in the economy in which children lived between the ages of 0 and 18 drive to some extent their average rate of absolute income mobility through adulthood. This relationship is statistically significant conditional on middle to relatively high percentile ranks of parent income. This may imply that middle- to high-income households rely on credit to finance investment in human capital to an extent that relatively low-income households do not.

This paper analyzes how computerization affected the labor market outcomes of older workers between 1984 and 2017. Using the computerization supplements of the Current Population Survey (CPS) we show that different occupations were computerized at different times, older workers tended to start using computers with a delay compared to younger workers, but computer use within occupations converged to the same levels across age groups eventually. That is, there was a temporary knowledge gap between younger and older workers in most occupations. Using this variation, we estimate how this knowledge gap affected older workers' labor market outcomes using millions of observations from the CPS, and additional data from the Health and Retirement Study. Our models control for occupation and time fixed effects and in some models, we also control for full occupation-time interactions and use middle aged (age 40-49) workers as the control group. We find strong and robust negative effects of the knowledge gap on wages, and a large, temporary increase in transitions from work to non-participation. These results are consistent with a model of creative destruction in which the computerization of jobs made older workers' skills obsolete in birth cohorts that experienced computerization relatively late in their careers. We find larger effects on females and on middle-skilled workers.

This map shows concentrations of Black populations in the Minneapolis area as of the 2010 census alongside historically racially restricted properties. The African-American population data is displayed at the block level.

A possible unintended but damaging consequence of anti-immigrant rhetoric, and the policies it inspires, is that they may put high-skilled immigrants off more than low-skilled ones at times when countries and businesses intensify their competition for global talent. We investigate this argument following the location choices of thousands of immigrant inventors across US counties during the Age of Mass Migration. To do so we combine a unique USPTO historical patent dataset with Census data and exploit exogenous variation in both immigration flows and diversity induced by former settlements, WWI and the 1920s Immigration Acts. We find that co-ethnic networks play an important role in attracting immigrant inventors. However, we also find that immigrant diversity acts as an additional significant pull factor. This is mainly due to externalities that foster immigrant inventors’ innovativeness. These findings are relevant for today’s advanced economies that have become major receivers of migrant flows and, in a long-term perspective, have started thinking about immigration in terms of not only level but also composition.

Objectives: This study introduces an indicator of racial out-group marriage to the research on hate crime. Drawing upon a variant of group threat theory, we hypothesize that Black out-group marriage with Whites will be positively related to anti-Black hate crime rates insofar as such marriages are perceived as transgressions of cultural boundaries. Informed by Allport’s contact theory, we hypothesize that Black out-group marriage with Whites will be negatively related to anti-Black hate crime rates insofar as such marriages indicate intercultural accommodation. Methods: Using data for a sample of U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas circa 2010, we assess our hypotheses with two operationalizations of levels of hate crime—incidence rates and victimization rates. Results: Our results reveal that levels of Black out-group marriages with Whites are positively related to the Black hate crime victimization rate but not related to the incidence rate. Conclusions: Our analyses suggest that any salutary effect of intercultural accommodation associated with interracial marriage is overwhelmed by the influence of the perceived cultural threat and intensification of animus for the “at-risk” population for perpetrating anti-Black hate crimes.

Since the 1940s, anthropogenic nitrogen (N) inputs have grown to dominate global N cycles, particularly in fluvial systems. Negative impacts of this enrichment on downstream estuaries are well documented. Efforts at N reductions are increasingly successful but evaluating ecosystem response trajectories is difficult because of a lack of knowledge of historic conditions. To document continental-scale coastal food web N-dynamics prior to large increases in human N-loads, we sampled 208 fish from an archival collection, taken from coastal waters across the continental U.S., with a median collection year of 1904. The archival fish were compared with 526 samples collected in 2015 from 126 estuaries also along the U.S. coastline. We used stable isotopes of N (δ15N) and carbon (δ13C) as a proxy for human inputs and organic matter sources. Watershed attributes from 1910 and 2012, census data, fish life histories, and basic estuarine geography were used to develop random forest models that determined which variables were the best predictors of isotope values. State, latitude, and fish trophic level were consistently the most important predictors, while human impacts played a lesser role. When the fish were collected (~1914 vs 2015) was not an important predictor, rather where the fish was collected was the best predictor of N source. The model results illustrate the important role that geography plays in coastal food web dynamics and underscore the importance of offshore N-sources to coastal food webs.

This paper examines the long-term and spillover effects of management interventions on firm performance. Under the Training Within Industry (TWI) program, the U.S. government provided management training to firms involved in war production between 1940 and 1945. Using a newly collected panel dataset on all 11,575 U.S. firms that applied to the program, we find that the TWI training had positive and long-lasting effects on firm performance and the adoption of beneficial managerial practices. Moreover, it generated complementarities among different types of training and had positive spillover effects on the supply chain of trained firms. (JEL: L2, M2, N34, N64, O32, O33)

The travel patterns of young adults have shifted in the past two decades. One explanation for this has been changes brought on by the global financial crisis but also broader restructuring in the labor market. The purpose of this study is to examine temporal patterns of work and assess how labor market shifts might influence travel needs. Using the American Time Use Survey dataset on adults between 18 and 34 years, we examined the change in employment and economic characteristics from 2003 to 2015 to provide context of recent experience. We then identified recent work time use patterns of young adults using pooled data from 2012 to 2015 in the segmentation analysis. The results of the trend analysis concurred with previous findings that the global financial crisis (GFC) and its aftermath have sustained and negative impacts on the employment status, earnings and hours worked of young adults. The examination of work time patterns showed that many young adults start and end work outside traditional peak periods, which might be problematic for those without reliable car access because this might restrict their employment options. Our findings suggest the need for transport planners to consider how the labor market shifts may affect travel patterns and resulting infrastructure needs and infrastructure planning tools.

COVID-19 created major disruptions for young people including health concerns, school closures, reduced social opportunities, and a wilting economy. We examine the effect of COVID-19 on high school completion in the United States. We find that high school completion rates increased considerably in 2020 compared to previous years. We investigate various mechanisms and find that worse employment conditions were the driving force. The lower opportunity costs of schooling because of the pandemic recession encouraged more young people to complete high school. The pandemic created extensive problems in education, but fortunately it did not reduce overall high school completion rates.

This paper explores the mobility patterns of elder workers in the United States, with a focus on mobility to and from work (e.g., commuting) across metropolitan areas and metropolitan population sizes. Using detailed time diaries from the American Time Use Survey for the years 2003-2018, estimates reveal a positive correlation between the time spent commuting and residing in metropolitan areas, which is also driven by longer commutes in more populated metropolitan areas. Furthermore, elder workers in metropolitan areas of more than 2.5 million inhabitants use more public transports in their commuting trips than similar workers in less-populated or non-metropolitan areas. The analysis presented here may allow policy makers to identify which elder workers may be more affected by the negative consequences of commuting, and also which groups of elder workers have more limitations in their commuting behaviors.

To study the drivers of the employment reallocation across sectors and occupations between 1960 and 2017 in the US we present a model where technology evolves at the sector-occupation cell level. Drawing on key equations of the production side we infer technologies directly from the data. We assess the magnitude of neutral, sector-, and occupation-specific components in technological change and study their consequences for labor market outcomes in general equilibrium where occupational choice and demands for sectoral outputs change endogenously with technology. Our findings indicate a major role for occupation-specific technological changes.

The variation of transit and bike share access amongst the communities in Chicago, in terms of their social, ethnic and economic segregation was investigated. The findings identify the area suitable for implementation of micro mobility as a first and last mile option. Based on transit connectivity and population mix, the communities are ranked into five groups: 1) Central: excellent transit and bike share access serving the micro mobility purpose; 2) North Side : good transit access which can be improved further amongst young age groups to improve transit ridership; 3) Far North Side : disproportionate transit and bike share distribution with excellent connectivity of transit and bike share in east and poor moving west; 4) North West , West and Near west and South west Side : has majority of hispanic population, black and low income population with a poor access to transit and bike share; 5) South Side, Far South West Side and Far South East side: high population of low income, senior , disability and black with very poor access to bus and bike share; Extensive improvement in transit service , bike share access and cost subsidy is needed. Severe imbalance exists in access to transit and bike share amongst the 77 communities in the city of Chicago. Bike share’s contribution towards increase or decrease in transit ridership was also investigated. A 25.9% increase in average bus stop level ridership and a 10.7% increase in average rail station level ridership was found to be associated with introducing bike share.

Research often finds a positive relationship between public transportation investment and gentrification in nearby neighborhoods. This dynamic is particularly important in urban contexts that plan for transit-oriented development and creating future “walkability.” In this study, I demonstrate a link between transit investment and changing neighborhood racial and ethnic composition, using a case study of the recent light-rail project in Seattle, Washington. Descriptive analyses and difference-in-difference models suggest that affected neighborhoods in Seattle experienced rising shares of non-Hispanic Whites following the start of light-rail construction, while neighborhoods at the suburban periphery of the line saw substantial growth in racial and ethnic diversity. These findings highlight the role of transit infrastructure in restructuring demographic trajectories of nearby neighborhoods and contribute evidence about shifting patterns of residential segregation in the area around the transit line.

We conduct an empirical simulation exercise that gauges the plausible impact of increased rates of college attainment on a variety of measures of income inequality and economic insecurity. Using two different methodological approaches—a distributional approach and a causal parameter approach—we find that increased rates of bachelor’s and associate degree attainment would meaningfully increase economic security for lower-income individuals, reduce poverty and near-poverty, and shrink gaps between the 90th and lower percentiles of the earnings distribution. However, increases in college attainment would not significantly reduce inequality at the very top of the distribution.

With the American Time Use Survey 2003-15 we show that both non-workers and workers with higher household incomes spend less time on two quantitatively important time-intensive activities, sleep and TV-watching. This finding cannot be explained by the standard (Becker, 1965) ”commodity production” model. We modify that model to allow both substitution between time and goods in household production and substitution among commodities in utility functions, which rationalizes these results and suggests a way forward for empirical work on household behavior.