The COVID-19 pandemic is causing a catastrophic increase in US mortality. How does the scale of this pandemic compare to another US catastrophe: racial inequality? Using demographic models, I estimate how many excess White deaths would raise US White mortality to the best-ever (lowest) US Black level under alternative, plausible assumptions about the age patterning of excess mortality in 2020. I find that 400,000 excess White deaths would be needed to equal the best mortality ever recorded among Blacks. For White mortality in 2020 to reach levels that Blacks experience outside of pandemics, current COVID-19 mortality levels would need to increase by a factor of nearly 6. Moreover, White life expectancy in 2020 will remain higher than Black life expectancy has ever been unless nearly 700,000 excess White deaths occur. Even amid COVID-19, US White mortality is likely to be less than what US Blacks have experienced every year. I argue that, if Black disadvantage operates every year on the scale of Whites’ experience of COVID-19, then so too should the tools we deploy to fight it. Our imagination should not be limited by how accustomed the United States is to profound racial inequality.

With increasing costs of floods across the globe, interest has grown in using managed retreat strategies, such as home buyouts, for flood mitigation. For years, national-level estimates of the benefits of flood mitigation investments in the United States have been estimated as being on the order of 4:1 (USD) or more recently 6:1 (USD), according to the Federal Emergency management Agency and others. Localized evaluation of the true costs and benefits for communities is limited, however, and primarily centered around avoiding direct structural damages. Home buyouts, where individuals’ properties are purchased and removed from risk while reducing impervious areas, are only one of many mitigation options captured in the national estimates. This paper presents a scenario analysis to estimate a localized return on investment of a home buyout program for Nashville-Davidson County, Tennessee in the United States that justifies investment in such programs. It considers the cost of buyouts across the community over several decades. It also compares those costs to benefits such as changes in stormwater attenuation, damages avoided, and exposed populations for a specific extreme flood event. Overall, at a localized scale, the study demonstrates that the return on investment is comparable to national averages, and that proactive implementation significantly increases the value of benefits relative to costs. The approach has potential applicability to other areas in the United States and beyond. It can be used to make the case for investment in such mitigation programs utilizing similarly available data.

Health events that occur in youth such as adolescent pregnancy often have an enormous impact on adult outcomes. Adolescents are traditionally well-covered by health insurance but may not have access to care for other reasons. Using the large and staggered expansion of Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs) in the last two decades, this paper studies the impact of these community-based providers on teen pregnancy rates and high school graduation rates. Openings are associated with a 10 percent drop in the teen birth rates. Declines are larger in counties with more than one opening and among low income populations. I find no statistically significant effect on educational attainment overall but a 17 percent decline in the proportion of women who did not complete high school in areas where FQHC openings had the largest effects on the teen birth rate. These findings highlight the potential of community-based institutions to impact opportunities for youth.

Urban history and urban cartography are closely linked. The analysis of spatial relationships through cartography enables a deeper and more sophisticated understanding of studied phenomena, and thus can be a valuable support to urban historians. In this context, the eighteenth- and nineteenth-century cadastres represent a fertile ground for experimentation in the quantitative analysis of urban space. The explicit relationships between the descriptive data of the cadastral registers and cadastral maps facilitate the computerization of this historical source and the construction of the spatial database. This article illustrates the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and geostatistical methods applied to urban historical studies, focusing on the analysis of socio-economic information retrieved from the Pio-Gregorian cadastre of Rome, from 1818 to 1824.

Early childhood shocks and the long-run implications of them have been of great research and policy interest. Even though a large body of literature has analyzed medical shocks and a variety of outcomes, research on how economic shocks affects the individuals later life economy has been limited. Using repeated cross-sectional data from Integrated Public Use Microdata Series for USA (IPUMS USA) for individual characteristics matched with Bureau of labor statistics (BLS) state unemployment records for individuals born between 1977 and 1990 effects of fluctuation in unemployment on adult wage are measured. Fixed effects are used for birthyear and state of residence to control for differences between cohort and states wage heterogeneity driving results. The results indicate a positive effect of additional 0.0018 wage log point per change in unemployment percentage point for the whole sample. When looking at heterogeneity in the results the interpretation seems more ambiguous as the effect is visible for adults up until thirty especially for groups particularly exposed to recessions during the time. In order to arrive at general wage results for the whole lifecycle more data is needed on elder individuals. Overall, the results suggest an effect and changes in labor market activity caused by economic shocks in early childhood. More research and policy evaluation seems warranted for providing more flexibility in labor and financial markets for families with children in early childhood.

Background: Transactional sex, a causal exchange of gifts, money and services for sex is practiced globally. Transactional sex is associated with risky sexual behaviors, unintended pregnancy, gender based violence and HIV infection. Proportionally in 2016, TS among young women not in union in Uganda was almost twice in rural areas (16.4%) compared to urban (8.9%) areas. Despite the negative consequences associated with transactional sex, no study in Sub-Saharan Africa Uganda inclusive has provided a detailed account of the contribution of the variations in characteristics and variations in effects of characteristics to the rural-urban gap in transactional sex among young women not in union. This study therefore provides a detailed account of the rural-urban gap in TS by variations in characteristics and variations in effects of characteristics of young women in Uganda. Methods: The study utilized data from UDHS 2016 comprising of 1,595 records of young women (15-24 years) not in union (not currently married or living with a man). Statistical analysis was done using a Non-linear Oaxaca’ Blinder Multivariate Decomposition of the logistic regression. Results: In the results, the overall gap in rural-urban transactional sex is signicantly attributed to both variations in characteristics (30.7%) and variations in effects of characteristics (69.3%) of young women (p<0.05). Specically, the rural-urban gap in transactional sex among young women in Uganda is attributed to variation in total children ever born (-15.2%), age at rst sex (10.3%) and variation in effect of highest education (-1, 1014.1%) and HIV stigma (-84.3%). Conclusion: In order to reduce transactional sex especially among young women in rural residence, government and other development partners need to strengthen comprehensive sex-education programs aimed at creating positive attitudes towards HIV, train young women on viable economic activities together with providing them with educational opportunities aimed at delaying sex.

The relative importance of racial and class inequality in incarceration in the United States has recently become the subject of much debate. In this paper, we seek to give this debate a stronger empirical foundation. First, we update previous research on racial and class inequality in people’s likelihood of being imprisoned. Then we examine racial and class inequality in people’s risk of having a family member imprisoned or living in a high-imprisonment neighborhood. We find that racial inequality in prison admissions has fallen in the twenty-first century, while class inequality has surged. However, in recent years, Black people with high levels of education and income were more likely than White people with low levels of education and income to experience the imprisonment of a family member or to live in a neighborhood with a high imprisonment rate. These seemingly contradictory conclusions can be reconciled by the fact that class boundaries among Black people are more permeable than they are among White people. Imprisonment in the United States is increasingly reserved for the poor. But because Black people are disproportionately connected to the poor through their families and neighborhoods, racial inequality exceeds class inequality in people’s indirect experiences with imprisonment.

Despite the status of religious organizations as major inputs toward nonprofit sector productivity in the United States, the study of the labor markets for clergy has been limited in the social sciences. One possible reason is that clergy are often considered to have low responsiveness to market forces; they are believed to follow a calling to a profession that has little regard for economic incentives. Even so, many congregations and denominations expect their clergy to be well-educated, with at least a bachelor's degree and often a graduate degree as well. Such expectations raise questions about career alternatives for young people considering entering the clergy. With this paper, I join a growing literature that explores the financial incentives facing members of the clergy. Using cross-sectional U.S. Census Bureau data from 1950-2010, this research provides a descriptive study of clergy compensation relative to other occupations, examining changes in returns to schooling. I find significant statistical evidence that supports a higher rate of return to schooling for non-clergy overall, and an increasing difference between clergy and non-clergy returns over the sample period. Additionally, the data suggest that the clergy could be a substitute for schooling for less educated African Americans and that the rise of women selecting into the occupation could be partially explained by decreasing opportunity cost for female clergy.

This paper studies a new economic force underlying the spatial sorting of rich and poor households in cities. On the demand side, households with different incomes choose neighborhoods and differ in their expenditures across various local services. On the supply side, service establishments sort into neighborhoods while taking into account proximity to their consumers. This two-sided sorting leads to endogenous differences in the local price index that amplify the concentration of household groups. A recent literature in urban economics has rationalized spatial sorting of households that is left unexplained by local incomes or housing costs by modeling pure amenity spillovers. In this paper, I quantify the contribution of endogenous price indices to spatial sorting that is usually projected onto such reduced form spillovers, and study the implications of two-sided sorting for urban policy. To do so, I develop a quantitative equilibrium model of the city that features two-sided sorting and nests many urban models. I estimate the key parameters of the model using detailed microdata for Los Angeles from 1990-2014. I find that spatial variation in local price indices decreases the estimates of reduced-form spillovers by about 30-50 percent. To shed light on the policy implications, I simulate policy counterfactuals, and compare the effects to the existing framework with only reduced-form amenity spillovers. By studying a number of prominent place-based policies in Los Angeles, I find substantially different effects on neighborhood composition and welfare between both models.

In the U.S., women are entering motherhood at older ages, with the age at first birth rising from a mean of 21.4 in 1970 to 26.8 in 2017 (FP-18-25). Women who have first births at younger ages differ on a range of characteristics compared to women who become mothers at later ages, and maternal age is linked to children’s well-being (Gibson-Davis & Rackin, 2014; Brown, Stykes, & Manning, 2016; Rackin & Gibson-Davis, 2018). This profile uses the Current Population Survey’s 2018 June Fertility Supplement to identify mothers who had a first birth between 2015 and 2018. Education level, race/ethnicity, and union status of mothers are compared across three groups classified by age at first birth: younger mothers (less than 24 years old), mid-range age mothers (24 to 29 years old), and older mothers (30 years or older). Additional profiles using the June Fertility Supplement analyze trends in completed family size among women aged 40-44 by education and race/ethnicity (FP-20-04) and by union status (FP-20-03).

The present study investigated whether Black and White Americans differed on the dimensions of Holland’s RIASEC model of vocational interests. Theoretical explanations of why racial differences in interests may occur are advanced drawing on Gottfredson’s (1981) theory of circumscription and compromise, and social identity theory (Tajfel &amp; Turner, 1986). A meta-analysis of 54 studies was conducted that included 926,462 participants and 306 effect sizes. Our results showed that, on average, Black Americans have stronger Social, Enterprising, and Conventional interests than White Americans; and White Americans have stronger Realistic and Investigative interests than Black Americans (no differences found on Artistic interests). Further, moderator analyses revealed that: (a) the Black-White gaps in Realistic, Investigative, Social, Enterprising, and Conventional interests all increase with education (in particular, with the onset of college), (b) the gaps in Social, Enterprising, and Conventional interests favoring Black Americans increase with age, and the gap in Realistic interests favoring White Americans decreases with age (although age and education effects tend to be confounded), (c) race gaps in Realistic and Social interests are larger in male samples, and (d)&nbsp;race gaps in Social, Enterprising, and Conventional interests may have decreased (but not disappeared) in more recent birth cohorts. We discuss these findings highlighting the roles of access to opportunity and of&nbsp;social identity in potentially giving rise to racial differences in interests. This research helps us discern factors that may contribute to diversity recruiting and the building of diverse talent pipelines in various careers.

This thesis attempts to examine the relationship between immigrant generation status and disability risk in the US. The difference in disability risk, resulting from a series of chronic health conditions, is one of the major indicators of health disparities among immigrants which contribute to persistent ethnic/racial stratification of health. Existing literature has primarily focused on the first generation immigrant’s health advantage in terms of disability observed in cross-sectional surveys. However, researchers have paid scant attention to the disability risk of the descendants of the first generation immigrants to date. This thesis uses the data extracted from the Current Population Survey (CPS) to investigate the relationship between immigrant generation status and disability risk. Furthermore, by employing the longitudinal design of the BMS, this thesis examines the differences in short-term disability risk among the respondents. The results show that the first generation immigrants show a lower risk of having a disability. Meanwhile, the descendants of the first generation immigrants generally show a higher risk of disability. Moreover, regardless of generation status, socioeconomic status is negatively associated with short-term disability risk. The main findings indicate that existing theories concerning the immigrant’s health inequalities, e.g. the Healthy Immigrant Effect and the Fundamental Causes Theory may predict disability risk of immigrants in the US context as well. Although the implication is limited due to the short observation period, the associations found in this research should be studied further with an advanced longitudinal approach.

The health-care sector is in many ways the most consequential part of the United States economy. It is a fundamental part of people’s lives, supporting their health and well-being. Moreover, it matters because of its economic size and budgetary implications. The health-care sector now employs 11 percent of American workers (Bureau of Labor Statistics [BLS] 1980– 2019b and authors’ calculations) and accounts for 24 percent of government spending (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services [CMS] 1987–2018; Bureau of Economic Analysis 1987–2018; authors’ calculations).1 Health insurance is the largest component (26 percent) of nonwage compensation (BLS 2019b) and health care is one of the largest categories of consumer spending (8.1 percent of consumer expenditures; BLS 2019a).

Between 1907 and 1914, the “Galveston Movement,” a philanthropic effort spearheaded by Jacob Schiff, fostered the immigration of approximately 10,000 Russian Jews through the Port of Galveston, Texas. Upon arrival, households were given train tickets to pre-selected locations west of the Mississippi River where a job awaited. Despite the program's stated purpose to locate new Russian Jewish immigrants to the Western part of the U.S., we find that roughly 85 to 90 percent of the prime-age male participants ultimately moved east of the Mississippi, typically to large Northeastern and Midwestern cities. We use a standard framework for modeling location decisions to show destination assignments made cities more desirable, but this effect was overwhelmed by the attraction of religious and country of origin enclaves. Economic conditions appear to be of secondary importance to our ethnic measures, even for participants at the top of the skill distribution.

H-1B visa holders do not adversely affect U.S. workers, according to new research. On the contrary, the evidence points to the presence of H-1B visa holders being associated with lower unemployment rates and faster earnings growth among college graduates, including recent college graduates. Further, the results suggest that, if anything, being in a field with more H-1B visa holders makes it more likely that U.S.-born young college graduates work in a job closely related to their college major. The results here should give pause to policymakers considering imposing additional restrictions on the H-1B program. There is little reason to think doing so will help American workers. This study uses data from 2005 to 2018 to examine how the number of approved petitions to hire H-1B visa holders as a share of college graduates within each of 22 occupations affects the unemployment rate and earnings growth rate in those occupations. The study analyzes data from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) on approved H-1B petitions and American Community Survey (ACS) data on the U.S. workforce. The analysis finds: • An increase in the share of workers with an H-1B visa within an occupation, on average, reduces the unemployment rate in that occupation. The results indicate that a 1 percentage point increase in the share of workers with an H-1B visa in an occupation reduces the unemployment rate by about 0.2 percentage points. The findings suggest the presence of H-1B visa holders boosts employment among other workers in an occupation. The results provide no evidence that the H-1B program has an adverse impact on labor market opportunities for U.S. workers. • The results suggest the presence of more H-1B visa holders leads to faster earnings growth for U.S. workers. The magnitude of the estimates suggests that a 1 percentage point increase in the share of workers with an H-1B visa in an occupation boosts the earnings growth rate in that occupation by about 0.1 to 0.26 percentage points. A larger share of H-1B visa holders, therefore, may push up wages and wage growth for U.S. workers. While critics often allege that H-1B visas reduce wages or suppress wage growth, this finding of the opposite is consistent with research showing that H-1B visa holders earn at least as much as similar U.S. workers, if not more. • The results indicate H-1B visa holders do not adversely affect U.S.-born college graduates during the early years of their careers. Having more approved total or initial H-1B petitions, on average, reduces the unemployment rate within a major-occupation for recent graduates. The results provide no evidence that recent college graduates have worse labor market outcomes if there are more H-1B visa holders in jobs closely related to their college major.

Post-mortem analysis of the 2016 election found that a failure to adjust for overrepresentation of college graduates was among the reasons many state-level polls underestimated support for Donald Trump. Voters who graduated from a four-year college are more likely to answer surveys than other adults and, in recent years, they are also more likely to support a Democrat for president. If a battleground state poll does not adjust for having too many college graduates, it is at risk of overstating support for a Democratic presidential candidate (in this case, Joe Biden).

How do Mexicans of distinct racial backgrounds fit into the recognized patterns of racial health disparities? We conduct regression analyses using data from the 2000-2017 National Health Interview Survey to determine if Mexicans who self-identify as White or Black have a relative advantage or disadvantage in self-rated health in relation to Non-Hispanic (NH) Whites and Blacks in the U.S. Our results indicate that both Black Mexicans and White Mexicans have a significant disadvantage in relation to NH-Whites while White Mexicans have a slight advantage in relation to both NH-Blacks and Black Mexicans. Overall, our results suggest that studying health outcomes among Hispanics without considering race may mask inequalities not observed in the aggregate.

Since 1940 the average worker has become older, more educated, more likely to be a woman, less likely to be White, and slightly less likely to be single. How has this evolution of the average worker affected wage growth, that is, the wage of the average worker? We conduct two sets of experiments: First, we decompose wage growth between a “growth effect” and a “distribution effect.” The former measures the effect of a change in the wage function, associating wages with worker types; the latter measures the effect of the changing distribution of worker types. Both effects contribute significantly to wage growth. Second, we evaluate the contribution of changing marginal distributions of these worker types one at a time: Aging and education enhanced wage growth, while the increased participation of women and non-White workers deterred wage growth—the latter effect being a direct implication of gender and racial wage gaps.

This paper explores the effect of birth weight on a series of anthropometric outcomes among children. We use a panel of individual-level data from 39 developing countries covering the years 1999-2018 and attempt to solve the Endogeneity using mother fixed effect and twin fixed-effect strategies. The results suggest that improvements in birth weight result in statistically and economically significant improvements in children's anthropometric outcomes. An additional 100 grams birth weight is associated with a 0.43 and 0.25 units increase in weight for age percentile and height for age percentile, respectively. The links are stronger among low educated mothers and poorer households. The observed protective effect of birth weight on infant mortality suggests that the true effects of birth weight on children’s outcomes are larger and that the estimated effects probably understate the true effects.

The United States compares unfavorably with other high-income countries in infant mortality, which recent literature has attributed to the poor birth outcomes among disadvantaged (i.e., unmarried and less-educated) mothers. Describing and decomposing the trend of the concentration of infant mortality among disadvantaged mothers thus provides important clues for improving birth outcomes. We develop the infant mortality disadvantage index (IMDI) to measure such concentration. Using the 1983–2013 Birth Cohort Linked Birth and Infant Death data, we show that although the IMDI—as a measure of mortality inequality—was persistently higher for Blacks than Whites, the trends were different between the two groups. The IMDI declined for Black women; for White women, however, it increased in the 1980s, then plateaued until the early 2000s, and declined thereafter. We then use Das Gupta’s decomposition method to assess the contribution of five demographic/social factors (age, education, marriage, fertility, and infant mortality) to the IMDI trend. Nonmarital fertility among women with less than 12 years of education contributed most to Whites’ changing IMDI; for Blacks, a shrinking proportion of the less-educated group and declines in infant mortality among disadvantaged mothers contributed to their declining IMDI. These findings explicate links between population-level compositional changes and infant mortality inequality.