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Title: The Long Reach of Cotton in the U.S. South: Tenant Farming, Mechanization and Low-Skill Manufacturing
Citation Type: Miscellaneous
Publication Year: 2018
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Abstract: Does structural change always promote economic development? This paper examines the long-run impact of cotton agriculture on development in the US South, focusing on a novel aspect of structural change. Exploiting climate-based variation in cotton production, I show that cotton specialization in the late 19th century had a negative impact on local development that lasts to this day. This negative relationship, however, arose only from the second half of the 20th century. I argue the change was caused by cotton mechanization which began in the 1950s. Cotton agriculture had depended on tenant farmers with little human capital. After the mechanization of cotton production, cotton tenants with low human capital were displaced and absorbed by local manufacturing. I find that labor productivity in manufacturing declined in response to the inflow of cotton tenants. The negative impact on manufacturing productivity persisted in the long-run because of directed technical change. Using census data in the recent period, I show that initial cotton specialization reduced the demand for skilled labor in manufacturing in the long-run. These results illustrate that, depending on agricultural backgrounds, structural change can affect evolution of technologies and productivity in the industrial sector negatively.
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Authors: Jung, Yeonha
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Data Collections: IPUMS USA, IPUMS NHGIS
Topics: Land Use/Urban Organization, Natural Resource Management, Other
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