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Title: Employment Effects of Three Rounds of Federal Minimum Wage Hikes

Citation Type: Miscellaneous

Publication Year: 2018

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Abstract: In three event studies, this paper presents estimates of the effects of the 1990– 1991, 1996–1997, and 2007–2009 rounds of federal minimum wage hikes on the employment of teens and high school dropouts in states without super-federal minimum wages. In state-year panel data from the Current Population Survey, a control group of people ages 25–59 with at least a high school education generates counterfactual series that track teen and drop out employment rates quite well (outside the periods of wage hikes). Deviations from the counterfactual series in the post-hike period identify the employment effects of the minimum wage hikes. For the 1990–1991 and 2007–2009 rounds, the employment effects for teens and dropouts are negative, statistically significant, economically large, and robust to the treatment of trends. I also find meaningful differences by sex, race, and age for teens. Welfare reform contaminates analysis of the 1996–1997 round, but monthly estimates of the employment effects in that round resemble monthly estimates in the 1990–1991 round until welfare reform rolled out in the second half of 1997.

Url: http://www.qc-econ-bba.com/seminarpapers/Disemployment.pdf

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Authors: Mclaughlin, Kenneth J

Publisher: Hunter College

Data Collections: IPUMS CPS

Topics: Labor Force and Occupational Structure, Other

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