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Title: Political Preferences and Migration of College-educated Workers

Citation Type: Miscellaneous

Publication Year: 2023

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Abstract: We study the consequence of political polarization along educational lines in the United States. First, we show an increase in the gap between college and non-college voters' policy views. Today, the average college graduate is far to the left of the average non-college voter on both economic and social issues, and to a degree much larger than 10 years ago. Next, we estimate the causal effects of a Republican governor on college graduates' choice of where to live. Republican governance reduces the in-migration flow of college-educated workers by about 13% per year over the four post-election years. This result changes over time in ways that closely mirror changes in political preferences, is robust to various identification strategies, and cannot be explained by labor demand. Finally, we extend a model of spatial sorting to allow workers to hold preferences over political amenities, and we calibrate the model to match our reduced form migration responses. We use the model to simulate various counterfactual changes in political control, with a particular focus on the inter-linkages between different states and the distributional consequences of the effects.

Url: https://jinciliu.https//drive.google.com/file/d/1RGL0RqcY34Wp3nq6fAOvStwELkyNImyr/view?pli=1

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Authors: Downey, Mitch; Liu, Jinci

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Data Collections: IPUMS USA

Topics: Aging and Retirement, Education, Population Data Science

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