Full Citation
Title: Detecting "Real" Population Changes with American Community Survey Data: The Implicit Assumption of Treating Between-Year differences as "Trends"
Citation Type: Journal Article
Publication Year: 2013
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Abstract: BACKGROUND: The American Community Survey (ACS) in the United States (US) collects detailed demographic information on the US population. Pressures to use year-to-year population estimates to analyze trends (i.e., between-year differences on the characteristics of interest) have motivated the need to explore how single- or multi-year estimates can be used to investigate changes in US population over time. OBJECTIVE: The specific aim of this manuscript is to provide empirical evidence that between-year differences in population characteristics have difference levels of uncertainty around point-estimates. METHODS: Six ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) single year files from 2005 through 2010 are used to empirically show the heterogeneity of uncertainty in between-year differences on level of education, for a birth cohort born between 1960 and 1970 of non-Latino-whites and Mexican Latinos/as. RESULTS: The data show the precision of the education estimate decreases as the specificity of the population increases. For example, Mexicans 99% confidence intervals have wider and more time-varying bandwidths than non-Latino-whites. CONCLUSIONS: Inferring meaningful population change requires the challengeable assumption that between-year differences are not the product of data artifacts. Harvesting reputable ACS data demands further research before between-year differences can be treated as real change.
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Authors: Siordia, Carlos
Periodical (Full): Journal of Sociological Research
Issue: 2
Volume: 4
Pages: 494-509
Data Collections: IPUMS USA
Topics: Methodology and Data Collection
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