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Title: Four Essays on Demographic Economics

Citation Type: Dissertation/Thesis

Publication Year: 2021

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Abstract: The objective of this thesis is to probe four demographic events from an economic perspective. Specifically, we employ the Easterlin relative income hypothesis to provide some explanation on movements regarding marriage, nonmarital fertility, and fertility postponement. Easterlin claims that young adults decide on several issues based on their relative affluence. By the latter, Easterlin implies that young adults compare their current (potential) economic condition to the one experienced during their childhood. Thus, the higher the affluence enjoyed in childhood, the higher their demands in young adulthood. This is, in short, the Easterlin relative income hypothesis. We retrieve data from IPUMSCPS for the period 1981-2016 across the US for white non-Hispanics (due to data availability) to provide some evidence on the latter. Results corroborate the hypothesis. Relative income of young adults found statistically significant for all the three aforementioned demographic events. In particular, relative income is related negatively to non-marital fertility and women’s fertility postponement, but positively to marriage rates. In addition, we find that relative income behaves better than the absolute one (in size and statistical significance aspects) with respect to marriage and premarital births. Next, we examine the fertility rebound. The latter took place in late 90s early 00’s especially in the most developed countries. Conventional wisdom tests for the rebound with respect to HDI (Human Development Index) and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita. We differentiate by testing the rebound in terms of labour productivity and female labour force participation, except for GPD per capita. Our analysis focuses on the turning points of two developed OECD income country groups (high and low income) that spans the period 1970-2016. The aim is to find out the factor (among labour productivity, female labour force participation, and GDP per capita) for which the turning points of the rebound (if confirmed) between the two groups, are closer, or coincide (statistically insignificant). Results show that differences in turning points are closer for labour productivity rather than GDP per capita or female labour force participation. Some thoughts on why the latter might hold are provided at the first part of the paper, based on demography, economic theory, and recent evidence. We conclude that labour productivity arises as the most important economic factor for the onset of the fertility rebound.

Url: https://dspace.lib.uom.gr/bitstream/2159/25045/7/MauropoulosGeorgiosPhd2021.pdf

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Authors: Mavropoulos, Georgios

Institution: University of Macedonia

Department: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Regional Studies

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Pages: 1-135

Data Collections: IPUMS CPS

Topics: Family and Marriage, Fertility and Mortality, Gender

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