Full Citation
Title: Peak Car in the Car Capital? Double-Cohort Analysis for Commute Mode Choice in Los Angeles County, California, Using Census and ACS Microdata
Citation Type: Conference Paper
Publication Year: 2017
ISBN:
ISSN:
DOI:
NSFID:
PMCID:
PMID:
Abstract: This paper develops double-cohort models to study the impact of demographic shifts on the aggregate commute mode choices in Los Angeles County, California from 2000 to 2010. Specifically, the models construct demographic cohorts by year of birth and immigration and study three commuting modes: automobiles, driving alone and carpooling. Using Integrated Public Use Microdata Seris (IPUMS) datasets on 2000 Census and 2009-2011 American Community Survey (ACS), the author found statistically significant effects on commuting mode choices across different cohorts in years 2000 and 2010. The trajectory charts show that the native-born younger generations are three-percent less possible to commute by automobiles than the older ones when reaching the same age levels, while the new immigrants staying in the US for less than ten years showed a strong increase in their expected probabilities of commuting by automobiles from 2000 to 2010. A simple projection shows that these two aforementioned demographic shifts: generational change and immigration assimilation push the aggregated preferences in commuting by automobiles to different directions. The projection shows there will be 82.5 to 84.0 percent of workers commuting by automobiles in 2020.
Url: https://trid.trb.org/view.aspx?id=1439710
User Submitted?: No
Authors: Wang, Xize
Conference Name: Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting
Publisher Location: Washington D.C.
Data Collections: IPUMS USA
Topics: Other
Countries: