Full Citation
Title: The Effect of Social Distancing On The Spread of Novel Coronavirus: Estimates From Linked State-Level Infection And American Time Use Survey Data
Citation Type: Miscellaneous
Publication Year: 2020
ISBN:
ISSN:
DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.30632.32007
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Abstract: This paper quantifies the effect of individual social distancing on the spread of the Novel Coronavirus with data on individual time spent on activities that would potentially expose them to crowds from the American Time Use Survey linked with state-level data on positive tests from the COVID Tracking Project. We estimate count data specifications of Novel Coronavirus infections at the state level as a function of control demographic variables, and a measure of social distance that captures the amount of time individuals across the states spend in activities that potentially expose them to crowds. Parameter estimates reveal that the number of state-level Novel Coronavirus infections decrease with respect to our measure of individual social distance. From a practical perspective, our parameter estimates suggest that if the typical individual in a US state were to spend 8 hours away from crowds completely, this would translate into approximately 480,000 less COVID-19 infections across the states. Our results suggest that, at least in the United States, social distancing policies are effective in slowing the spread of the Novel Coronavirus. The estimated parameters on some of our demographic controls may also be instructive for Novel Coronavirus mitigation policies, as they reveal that the number of Novel Coronavirus infections increase with the percentage of a state's population that is African American, foreign born, self-employed, and living in metropolitan areas/cities. JEL Classification: C25, C29, H12, I12, I18, J29
Url: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340460649
User Submitted?: No
Authors: Price, Gregory N; Van Holm, Eric
Publisher: University of New Orleans
Data Collections: IPUMS Time Use - ATUS
Topics: Health, Work, Family, and Time
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