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Title: Asymmetric Effects and Hysteresis in Crime Rates: Evidence from the United States
Citation Type: Miscellaneous
Publication Year: 2013
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Abstract: This paper empirically investigates the existence of hysteresis in crime rates. Thisis the first empirical study to consider the existence of asymmetric eff ects on crimefrom variations in the probability of punishment and in the opportunity cost of crime.I investigate whether positive variations on variables associated to those factors, respectively police offi$cers and average level of income, are statistically diff erent from negative variations. Using US crime data at the state level between 1977 and 2010, I find that police force size and real average income of unskilled workers have asymmetrice ffects on most types of crimes. The absolute value of the average impact of positive variations in those variables on property and violent crime rates are statistically smallerthan the absolute value of the average e ffect of negative variations. These eff ects are robust under several specifications. A closer inspection of the data reveals a relatively monotonic negative relationship between wages and property crime rates, as well as negative variations in police and most crime rates. However, the relationships between positive variations in law enforcement size and most crime rates are non-linear. The magnitude of the observed asymmetries supports the hypothesis of hysteresis in crime, and suggests that no theoretical or empirical analysis would be complete without careful consideration of that important feature in the relationships between crime, police and legal income. These results corroborate the argument that policy makers should be more inclined to set pre-emptive policies rather than mitigating measures.
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Authors: Loureiro, Andre
Publisher: University of Edinburgh
Data Collections: IPUMS CPS
Topics: Crime and Deviance
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