Full Citation
Title: A Model of the Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic During a Hurricane in Virginia
Citation Type: Miscellaneous
Publication Year: 2020
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Abstract: As of August 24, 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had resulted in the deaths of approximately 2,500 Virginians. The 2020 hurricane season began June 1 and is considered to be extremely active. The threat of a hurricane increases the complexity of risk management decisions related to the pandemic—and the effects of the pandemic increase the complexity of planning for a hurricane. In this report, we study the implications that a hurricane during the COVID-19 pandemic would have for the Commonwealth of Virginia. This analysis should help inform advance planning for the hurricane season in general and could be used in response to a specific storm with an estimated track through Virginia. We focus on the combined impacts of COVID-19 and a hurricane on morbidity and mortality; we do not examine other effects, such as effects on infrastructure, social networks, and the economy. A conceptual framework for assessing risk is foundational for developing a model of the risks associated with the intersection of hurricanes and COVID-19. We adopt the Department of Homeland Security Risk Lexicon definition of risk as “potential for an adverse outcome assessed as a function of threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences associated with an incident, event, or occurrence” (U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Risk Steering Committee, 2010). Using this definition, we separate risk into the categories of threat, vulnerability, and consequence, as seen in Figure S.1. In this report, we examine two threats: a hurricane and COVID-19. The vulnerability involved is the susceptibility to these threats and can be thought of in terms of storm, health, and socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Storm vulnerability is related to parts of the physical environment that would be adversely affected by a hurricane exposure, such as homes in a storm surge area, homes without floodproofing, and areas where roads are likely to be flooded. Health vulnerability is related to characteristics that make a person more susceptible to health threats, such as age and comorbidities. Socioeconomic vulnerability includes a lack of resources to evacuate in case of inclement weather; limited access to consistent, high-quality health care; and the inability to access social services because of barriers associated with language or other characteristics. In this report, we focus on how these vulnerabilities affect consequences: hurricaneassociated COVID-19 spread, death from COVID-19 or a hurricane, and other health and safety effects.
Url: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA300/RRA323-2/RAND_RRA323-2.pdf
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Authors: Price, Carter C.; Klima, Kelly; Propp, Adrienne M.; Colbert-Kelly, Sean
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Data Collections: IPUMS USA
Topics: Health
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