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Title: The 1918 U.S. Influenza Pandemic as a Natural Experiment, Revisited

Citation Type: Conference Paper

Publication Year: 2011

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Abstract: Douglas Almond's use of the 1918 U.S. influenza pandemic as a natural experiment led to the seminal works on the subject of in utero health's impact on later life outcomes. The identi fication strength of his work, though, is driven by the inherent natural experiment supposition of random assignment. By using data from the 1920 and 1930 U.S. Censuses, this study investigates this keystone assumption and shows that the families of the \treatment" cohort were signifi cantly less literate and economically prosperous than the families of the \control" group. Additionally, when proxies for childhood environment are added to Almond's analyses, his fi ndings are appreciably reduced inmagnitude and signifi cance. This research implies that failing to control for the fi rst order eff ect of parent's education and wealth on a child's long-run outcomes, eliminates Douglas Almond's ability to use the 1918 U.S. influenza pandemic to make direct inferences regardingfetal health's impact on long-term wellbeing.

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Authors: Brown, Ryan

Conference Name: Population Association of America

Publisher Location: Washington, D.C.

Data Collections: IPUMS USA

Topics: Health

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