Full Citation
Title: The Long-Run Effects of Recessions on Education and Income
Citation Type: Miscellaneous
Publication Year: 2016
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Abstract: This paper examines the long-run effects of the 1980-1982 recession on educational attainment and income. Using confidential Census data linked to county of birth, I relate cross-county variation in the severity of the recession to differences in long-run outcomes between individuals who were younger versus older when the recession began. Individuals who were born in counties with a more severe recession and were children or adolescents during the recession are less likely to obtain a college degree and, as adults, earn less income. My estimates, combined with the large number of potentially affected individuals, suggest that the 1980-1982 recession could depress economic output today. Every U.S. recession since 1973 resembles the 1980-1982 recession in persistently decreasing earnings per capita in negatively affected counties, which suggests that other recessions might also have significant long-run effects.
User Submitted?: No
Authors: Stuart, Bryan A
Publisher: University of Michigan
Data Collections: IPUMS USA
Topics: Education, Labor Force and Occupational Structure, Migration and Immigration, Poverty and Welfare
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