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Title: Migration as Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change in Mexico: Exploring the Temporal Dimensions
Citation Type: Miscellaneous
Publication Year: 2016
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Abstract: Although evidence is increasing that climate shocks influence human migration, it is unclear exactly when people migrate after a climate shock. A climate shock might be followed by an immediate migration response. Alternatively, migration, as an adaptive strategy of last resort, might be delayed and employed only after available in-situ (in- place) adaptive strategies are exhausted. In this paper, we explore the temporally lagged association between a climate shock and future migration. Using multilevel event-history models, we analyze the risk of Mexico-U.S. migration over a seven-year period after a climate shock. Consistent with a delayed response pattern, we find that the risk of migration is low immediately after a climate shock and increases as households pursue and cycle through in-situ adaptive strategies available to them. However, about three years after the climate shock, the risk of migration decreases, suggesting that households are eventually successful in adapting in-situ.
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Authors: Nawrotzki, Raphael, J; DeWaard, Jack
Publisher: University of Minnesota
Data Collections: IPUMS International
Topics: Migration and Immigration, Natural Resource Management
Countries: Mexico