Full Citation
Title: The future of Latino Catholicism in the United States: A population projection from 2010 to 2060
Citation Type: Dissertation/Thesis
Publication Year: 2014
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Abstract: The latest survey data from Pew Research Center and National Survey of Family Growth are applied to the 2010 Census Bureau numbers to project the U.S. Catholic population from 2010 to 2060. I hypothesize that immigration and the assimilation of Latinos plays a powerful role in the future growth or decline of the Catholic Church. Assimilation directly affects two main components of religious growth, fertility and switching, and influences exogamous marriage rates. I also model how changing immigration patterns will affect the future composition and growth of the U.S. Catholic Church. I used cohort component projection methods with three varied assumptions for each of the four components: immigration, fertility, exogamy, and switching. The three assumptions corresponded with low, medium, and high levels of assimilation. I presented results for each component separately to asses the individual impact, and then created combined scenarios with the lowest and highest levels of assimilation in the population. I find that high levels of assimilation are associated with lower levels of future growth for Latino Catholics and that by 2060, the growth of the Catholic will be approximately zero. Low levels of assimilation are associated with high sustained levels of growth for the Latino Catholic population across the entire projection period. Immigration, not affected by assimilation, had . . .
Url: https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/22378
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Authors: Tucker, Catherine
Institution: The Pennsylvania State University
Department: Sociology
Advisor: Jennifer Lynne Van Hook
Degree: PhD
Publisher Location: PA
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Data Collections: IPUMS USA
Topics: Other
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