Full Citation
Title: Changing Stability in U.S. Employment Relationships: A Tale of Two Tails
Citation Type: Miscellaneous
Publication Year: 2019
ISBN:
ISSN:
DOI:
NSFID:
PMCID:
PMID:
Abstract: We confront two seemingly-contradictory observations about the US labor market: the rate at which workers change employers has declined since the 1980s, yet there is a commonly expressed view that long-term employment relationships are more difficult to attain. We reconcile these observations by examining how employment tenure has changed throughout the tenure distribution and for various demographic groups. We show that the fraction of workers with short tenure (less than a year) has been falling since the 1980s, while the fraction of workers with long tenure (20 years or more) has been rising modestly. The increase in long tenure reflects a rise in long tenure for women and the ageing of the population. Long tenure has declined notably among older men; this trend may have spurred popular perceptions that long-term employment is less common than in the past. The decline in long-tenure for men appears due to an increase in mid-career separations that reduce the likelihood of reaching long-tenure, rather than an increase in late-career separations. Nevertheless, survey evidence indicates that these changes in employment relationships are not associated with heightened concerns about job insecurity or decreases in job satisfaction as reported by workers. The decline in short-tenure is widespread, associated with fewer workers cycling among briefly-held jobs, and coincides with an increase in perceived job security among short tenure workers.
Url: http://conference.iza.org/conference_files/Macro_2019/wozniak_a2073.pdf
User Submitted?: No
Authors: Molloy, Raven; Smith, Christpher, L; Wozniak, Abigail
Publisher: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Data Collections: IPUMS CPS
Topics: Labor Force and Occupational Structure
Countries: