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Title: The Lifecycle Welfare Migration Hypothesis: Evidence from the 1980 and 1990 Censuses

Citation Type: Working Paper

Publication Year: 2000

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Abstract: Welfare eligibility has traditionally required presence of a minor child in the household. Welfare migration incentives should thus be stronger among mothers of young children than among mothers of older children. Moreover, once migration has occurred, it is less likely to occur in the future, so that the population distribution is selected on locational preferences after initial locational decisions are made. Both of these factors suggest that welfare migration should be observed primarily among mothers of relatively young children. Using several welfare migration measures, I present evidence of substantial lifecycle welfare migration among women observed in the 1980 Census, with 1990 Census data suggesting positive but relatively less welfare migration. I argue that this pattern of evidence is to be expected based on theoretical models of the joint determination of locational choice and state benet determination; intergenerational correlation in income also leads to the prediction of declining welfare migration. My results suggest that previous literature on welfare migration has understated the extent of welfare migration because of failure to address dynamic incentive and selection eects.

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Authors: Gelbach, Jonah B.

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Data Collections: IPUMS USA

Topics: Migration and Immigration, Poverty and Welfare

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