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Title: The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity

Citation Type: Miscellaneous

Publication Year: 2018

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Abstract: Population aging is expected to slow economic growth yet there is little evidence about the magnitude of its effects. We use variation in the predetermined component of population aging across U.S. states to estimate the impact of population aging on GDP growth between 1980- 2010. We find that each 10% increase in the fraction of the population ages 60+ decreased percapita GDP by 5.5%. Two-thirds of the reduction was due to slower growth in productivity, while one-third arose from slower labor force growth. Our estimate implies population aging reduced the annual rate of GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points during 1980-2010.

Url: https://works.bepress.com/david_powell/22/download/

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Authors: Maestas, Nicole; Mullen, Kathleen, J; Powell, David

Publisher: Harvard University

Data Collections: IPUMS USA

Topics: Aging and Retirement, Labor Force and Occupational Structure, Other

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