Full Citation

Title: No Recovery: An Analysis of Long-Term U.S. Productivity Decline

Citation Type: Miscellaneous

Publication Year: 2016

ISBN:

ISSN:

DOI:

NSFID:

PMCID:

PMID:

Abstract: The United States has now had seven years to recover from the worst of the Great Recession. During that time, job growth has been steady, if unspectacular, and the unemployment rate has fallen from 10% to just under 5%, where it stands as of this writing. Stock prices, meanwhile, continue to reach and surpass new highs. Leading politicians and commentators reassure the public that everything is getting better. And yet, there is a pervasive sense that the economy is not working, as documented in Gallup survey data and many anecdotal media accounts. The people are right. The economy is not working well. But the problems did not start with the Great Recession. For decades, the nations income, measured as GDP, has barely grown overall; on a per capita basis, median household income peaked in 1999; the subjective general health status of Americans has declined, even adjusting for the aging population; disability rates are higher; learning has stagnated; fewer new businesses are being launched; more workers are involuntarily stuck in part-time jobs or out of the labor force entirely; and the income ranks of grown children are no less tied to the income ranks of their parents. The focus of this report is on the problems confronting the United States, which, despite the aforementioned issues, has exhibited somewhat better performance than many of its peers on GDP growth, though weaker performance on health and education. Therein, however, is the chief problem for this country. The tech sector and professional services of the United States are world class; they draw skilled workers from every country, akin to professional European football teams. The same could be said of top universities in the United States. But the rest of the economy especially the U.S. healthcare and education sectors are not world class, and the countrys top universities serve just a tiny fraction of the U.S. adult population. These sectors as well as housing have racked up tremendous expenses for consumers, businesses and taxpayers but provided relatively little value in return, as this report will describe in detail. As a result, the great strengths of the United States are offset by great weaknesses. Those who have recognized at least some of these challenges often misdiagnose their origin, confusing the timing with an increase in trade, immigration or information technology. In reality, those trends have bolstered the little progress the U.S. has made. Meanwhile, defenders of the status quo only recognize the nations strengths in technology production and research or recent job growth without acknowledging the very different political and market dysfunctions dominating other sectors. This report argues that deterioration in large, vital sectors of the economy is far from inevitable, but rather an entirely reversible outcome that can be linked to specific policies, rules and regulations that have arisen and accumulated after decades of weak political leadership often at the state and local levels and lobbying by interest groups.

Url: http://publicassets.org/library/publications/reports/state-of-working-vermont-2016/

User Submitted?: No

Authors: Rothwell, Jonathan

Publisher: Gallup

Data Collections: IPUMS USA, IPUMS CPS

Topics: Aging and Retirement, Education, Fertility and Mortality, Health, Housing and Segregation, Labor Force and Occupational Structure, Land Use/Urban Organization, Other, Race and Ethnicity

Countries: