Full Citation
Title: The Predictability of High-risk Zones for Heat-related mortality in Seven US Cities
Citation Type: Journal Article
Publication Year: 2014
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Abstract: Heat-related mortality remains a public health challenge in the United States. The objective of this study was to determine the temporal consistency of high-risk zones for heat-related mortality using historical georeferenced mortality data from seven US cities. A generalized additive model was used to identify city-specific threshold temperatures associated with increased mortality, and then the mortality rate on threshold-exceeding days was calculated for each postal code comprising each study city. This process was iterated by withholding subsets of data from the model and assessing predictability via cross-validation. In all cities, the average mortality rate in postal codes targeted for intervention by the statistical model was higher than that in non-targeted areas. Targeted areas for interventions in the study data accounted for 50 % of excess heat-related deaths despite only accounting for 25 % of total mortality. Focusing intervention measures at certain geographical zones within urban areas could be an effective means of combating heat-related mortality because there is temporal consistency in places where the death rate is most sensitive to heat.
Url: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-014-1213-5
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Authors: Hondula, David M.; Davis, Robert E.
Periodical (Full): Natural Hazards
Issue: 2
Volume: 74
Pages: 771-788
Data Collections: IPUMS NHGIS
Topics: Fertility and Mortality, Health
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