Full Citation
Title: A Theory of the Impact of Proportional Population Change on Voter Turnout
Citation Type: Dissertation/Thesis
Publication Year: 2004
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Abstract: The American population of today is far different from that of 40 years ago. The fact that society is cognizant of this is evident by the continual creation of population subcategories (race and ethnic) in an effort to develop a more accurate picture of who we are. Although we recognize that we have and continue to change, we continue to expect to obtain accurate predictions of voter turnout based upon profiles of the voting age population (VAP) as it existed 40 years ago. In this project, I explain how changes in the proportion of the subpopulation groups of the VAP are important to the prediction of voter behavior and how the changes affect the observed behavior at the aggregate level. I develop a theory of group-mix that demonstrates that the changes in subpopulation groups are pivotal in understanding and predicting turnout. I test the theory using American National Election Data from the 1960s through the 1990s to demonstrate that assumptions made about the electorate must take into consideration proportional changes in the mix of the VAP, and must consider the attributes of each proportion. The results of the data analyses provide good support for the group-mix theory and show that if a change in any population subgroup is sufficiently large, it can impact the observed behavior at the aggregate level.
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Authors: White, Jacqueline
Institution: Claremont Graduate University
Department: Department of Political Science
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Degree: Doctor in Philosophy
Publisher Location: Claremont, CA
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Data Collections: IPUMS USA
Topics: Other
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