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Title: When the Techies Come to Town: High-income Migration and Housing Cost Burden in the United States

Citation Type: Conference Paper

Publication Year: 2018

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Abstract: As housing costs increased in recent years, particularly in large coastal cities, a common public narrative has attributed the trend to high-income in-migration. For example, the technology industry in the San Francisco Bay Area has attracted many high-income workers to the area, which locals and national journalists alike argue has caused a burdensome increase in housing costs for long-term residents. The association has arguably been exacerbated by strict regulations on new housing construction. Using data from the 2005—2016 American Community Survey and Wharton Residential Land Use Regulatory Index, this paper empirically tests whether this narrative has general applicability for 132 metropolitan areas in the United States. Despite positive associations between high-income in-migration and monthly rental costs, results from panel decomposition models find no or negative associations with rent burdens. However, metropolitan areas with stably high levels of high-income in-migration also exhibit high rates of out-migration. The results suggest the null or negative associations between high-income inmigration and rent burdens may be due to displacement of lower-income residents. More prominently, the results suggest housing market dynamics in places like San Francisco are not generalizable to most US cities. Our findings warrant caution with the general public narrative around high-income in-migration and housing regulation.

Url: https://paa.confex.com/paa/2018/mediafile/ExtendedAbstract/Paper23786/Finnigan Clark PAA.pdf

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Authors: Finnigan, Ryan; Clark, Bridget

Conference Name: PAA 2018

Publisher Location: Sheraton Denver Downtown

Data Collections: IPUMS USA

Topics: Housing and Segregation, Other

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