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Title: Understanding Gross Worker Flows Across U.S. States

Citation Type: Miscellaneous

Publication Year: 2008

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Abstract: A surprising but robust characteristic of workers' migration patterns across locations (states and metropolitan areas) within the U.S. is the positive correlation between inflow and outflow rates. This pattern cannot be accounted for by standard equilibrium models of employment reallocation across geographic areas in which net and gross flows of workers coincide. Further, micro-level evidence shows that inflows and outflows of workers tend to simultaneously occur within narrowly defined demographic groups, suggesting that the positive inflow-outflow correlation is not the symptom of a changing demographic composition of employment across locations. This paper develops and estimates a dynamic general equilibrium model of gross and net migration flows to explain this pattern. Due to a selection effect, workers migrating into a location have a higher propensity to migrate again than workers already living there. Thus, U.S. states that absorb large numbers of internal migrants also tend to display relatively large outflow rates. The time-series pattern of inflow and outflow rates across states is consistent with this interpretation.

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Authors: Coen-Pirani, Daniele

Publisher: Carnegie Mellon University

Data Collections: IPUMS USA

Topics: Education, Labor Force and Occupational Structure, Migration and Immigration

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