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Title: The lnfluence of Early-life Economic Shocks on Long-term Outcomes: Evidence from the U.S Great Depression

Citation Type: Working Paper

Publication Year: 2020

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Abstract: We show that health and productivity around retirement age, and earnings over the life cycle, vary with exposure to economic conditions in early life. Using state-year-level variation from the most severe and prolonged economic downturn in American history-the Great Depression-combined with restricted micro-data from the Health and Retirement Study, we find that changes in macroeconomic indicators before age 6 are associated with changes in economic well-being, earnings, metabolic syndrome, and physical limitations decades later. We also document large declines in long-term mortality. Results are not driven by endogenous fertility responses throughout the 1930s. Our results help inform the design of retirement and healthcare systems and the long-term costs of business cycles.

Url: http://econ-wpseries.com/2020/202011.pdf

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Authors: Duque, Valentina; Schmitz, Lauren L

Series Title: Economics Working Paper Series

Publication Number: 2020-11

Institution: The University of Sydney

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Publisher Location: Sydney, Australia

Data Collections: IPUMS USA

Topics: Labor Force and Occupational Structure, Other

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