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Title: The Rise in Disability Rolls and the Decline in Unemployment

Citation Type: Journal Article

Publication Year: 2003

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Abstract: Between 1984 and 2001, the share of non-elderly adults receiving Social Security Disability Insurance income (DI) rose by 60 percent to 5.3 million beneficiaries. Rapid program growth despite improving aggregate health appears explained by reduced screening stringency, declining demand for less skilled workers, and an unforeseen increase in the earnings replacement rate. We estimate that the sum of these forces doubled the labor force exit propensity of displaced high school dropouts after 1984, lowering measured U.S. unemployment by one-half a percentage point. Steady state calculations augur a further 40 percent increase in rate of DI receipt.

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Authors: Duggan, Mark G.; Autor, David H.

Periodical (Full): Quarterly Journal of Economics

Issue: 1

Volume: 118

Pages: 157-205

Data Collections: IPUMS USA, IPUMS CPS

Topics: Education, Labor Force and Occupational Structure

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