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Title: Arizona's Emerging Latino Vote
Citation Type: Miscellaneous
Publication Year: 2012
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Abstract: Predicting the future can be risky business, but demographics tell us there is one irrefutable element in Arizona’s future – the disproportionate growth in young Latino citizens. Latinos constitute Arizona’s most rapidly growing ethnicity and could represent more than 50 percent of Arizona’s population by mid-century. The ramifications will be profound, with major impacts to be felt in the healthcare industries, at all levels of education, the workforce population and in state budgeting – just to cite a few. But perhaps the most important and far-reaching shift will be a change in statewide voting patterns and elections. Presently, Arizona politics and government are dominated by a Republican majority that is supported and elected, primarily, by Arizona’s aging white population. Research shows Latinos are unlikely to vote Republican and much more likely to support Democratic and Independent candidates. As a result, as their numbers grow much larger in proportion to other ethnic groups, Latinos’ impact on electing officials more to their political favor also will grow. That means that, over time, Arizona is likely to see more and more Democratic and Independent candidates elected to office, as well as perhaps more moderate Republicans. The demographics are undeniable: Unless there is an unforeseeable sea change in Latino voting patterns, Arizona is destined to become a much less Republican-dominated state, perhaps even changing from red to blue in the coming decades. The change will be slow – the full impact won’t be felt for another 20 or 30 years – but incremental and noticeable, as our state’s political face is changed irrevocably by Arizona’s emerging Latino vote.
Url: http://media.devel.azpm.org/master/document/2012/9/14/pdf/latvotefinal.pdf
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Authors: Hart, Bill; Hedberg, E C
Publisher: Arizona State University Latino Public Policy Center
Data Collections: IPUMS USA
Topics: Race and Ethnicity
Countries: United States