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Title: The Urban Mortality Transition and the Rise of Poor Mega-Cities

Citation Type: Miscellaneous

Publication Year: 2016

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Abstract: The largest cities in the world today lie mainly in poor countries, which is a departure from historical experience, when they were typically found in the richest places. We use novel historical data on city-level demographics to establish that poor mega-cities are distinct because of the exceptionally low mortality rates they experienced after the post-war mortality transition. To quantify the importance of this mortality shock on the origin of poor mega-citites, we develop a general equilibrium model of location choice with endogenous population growth, a rural sector, and distinct differences between informal urban areas (i.e. slums) and formal urban areas. The model shows that the equilibrium allocation of population across locations depends on aggregate population growth, and an increase in this pushes population into informal urban areas, creating poor mega-cities. We then calibrate the model to data from a sample of developing countries, and use this to calculate that the mortality transition accounted for roughly one-third of the increase in the urbanization rate, and over half of the increase in the size of slums, from 19602005. We also use the calibrated model to evaluate several policies aimed at slowing the growth of poor mega-cities and their slums, and find that family planning programs, and not migration restriction, are the most effective and show the greatest welfare gains.

Url: http://home.gwu.edu/~jedwab/Jedwab_Vollrath_11032016.pdf

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Authors: Jedwab, Remi; Vollrath, Dietrich

Publisher: Department of Economics, George Washington University

Data Collections: IPUMS USA

Topics: Housing and Segregation, Other, Poverty and Welfare

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