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Title: Immigrant Entrepreneurship and Job Creation in the United States: A Historical Analysis and Future Projection Model
Citation Type: Miscellaneous
Publication Year: 2021
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Abstract: Since the turn of the 21st century, the United States has experienced a drastic shift in the number and composition of immigrants entering its borders. Compared to native-born persons, immigrants are disproportionately more likely to become entrepreneurs and start small businesses. Entrepreneurship leads to greater financial gains and economic prosperity for immigrants and is also an important driver of job creation and community development around the United States. As a result of recent immigration restrictions and reduced movement due to the COVID-19 pandemic, there is concern about the long-term impact that decreased immigration will have on small business development and subsequent job creation. The aims of this paper are to: 1) conduct a historical trend analysis of immigrant entrepreneurship and job creation in the United States; and 2) develop projected estimates of immigrant entrepreneurship under alternative assumptions. Data were derived from the American Community Survey (ACS) linked to the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) database. Historical data was displayed graphically to visualize trends in key outcomes over time. Three projection models for entrepreneurship through the year 2031 were developed, with each model testing a different assumption regarding immigration. The first projection allows for a stable level of immigration, the second projection cuts immigration in half, and the third projection eliminates immigration entirely. With stable immigration, a projected 4,106,389 immigrant entrepreneurs will be in the United States in 2031, compared to 3,375,287 immigrant entrepreneurs if immigration is cut to zero. Given that the typical five-year-old firm employs an average of 17.43 people, this drop in entrepreneurship would eliminate 12,743,107 jobs in the United States within the next 10 years. The results shed light on the role of immigrant entrepreneurship in job creation during this decade. Policies that encourage and facilitate immigrant entrepreneurship,
Url: https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_chanhonoproj/2402
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Authors: Jarjoura, Joelle M
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Data Collections: IPUMS USA
Topics: Labor Force and Occupational Structure, Migration and Immigration
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