Full Citation

Title: Effects of New Deal Spending and the Downturns of the 1930s on Private Labor Markets in 1939/1940

Citation Type: Miscellaneous

Publication Year: 2016

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Abstract: We examine the medium-term effects on private labor markets for males in 1939-40 of the earlier Great Contraction of 1929-1933, and the Second-Dip Recession of 1937-38, as well as the concurrent and medium run effects of New Deal grants between 1933 and 1939. The analysis combines county level data on New Deal spending on the relief, public works, and Agricultural Adjustment Administration farm programs from 1933 to 1939 with IPUMS information on individuals from the U.S. Census in 1940. The results show that workers in counties hit harder by the earlier contractions still had fewer work opportunities and lower earnings in 1939/40 and were less likely to move to more skilled jobs between 1930 and 1940. Workers in counties with more public works grants per capita had higher weekly and annual earnings and worked more hours in private jobs and were more likely to move to higher skilled jobs during the 1930s, but there was no difference in their hourly earnings or in their probability of private employment. In counties with more relief grants and AAA grants, workers had less access to private jobs and were paid lower annual, weekly, and hourly earnings. The probability of moving into more skilled jobs was also lower.

Url: http://cliometrics.org/pdf/2017-aea/liu-fishback-aea-2017.pdf

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Authors: Liu, Xing; Fishback, Price

Publisher: Bank of the West

Data Collections: IPUMS USA

Topics: Labor Force and Occupational Structure, Other, Poverty and Welfare

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