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Title: White Deaths Exceed Births in One-Third of U.S. States

Citation Type: Miscellaneous

Publication Year: 2016

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Abstract: In 2014, deaths among non-Hispanic whites exceeded births in more states than at any time in U.S. history. Seventeen states, home to 121 million residents or roughly 38 percent of the U.S. population, had more deaths than births among non-Hispanic whites (hereafter referred to as whites) in 2014, compared to just four in 2004. When births fail to keep pace with deaths, a region is said to have a natural decrease in population, which can only be offset by migration gains. In twelve of the seventeen states with white natural decreases, the white population diminished overall between 2013 and 2014. This research is the first to examine the growing incidence of white natural decrease among U.S. states and to consider its policy implications. Our analysis of the demographic factors that cause white natural decrease suggests that the pace is likely to pick up in the future. Over the last several decades, demographers have noted the growing incidence of natural decrease in the United States.1 More widespread natural decrease results from declining fertility due to the Great Recession, and the aging of the large baby boom cohorts born between 1946 and 1964. This senior population is projected to expand from nearly 15 percent of the total population in 2015 to nearly 24 percent in 2060.2 Much of this aging baby boom population is white, and so white mortality is growing. Together, growing white mortality and the diminishing number of white births increase the likelihood of more white natural decrease. In contrast, births exceed deaths by a considerable margin among the younger Latino population, and the combination of these very different demographic trends is increasing the diversity of the U.S. population.3 Though demographers have documented the growing incidence of natural decrease among the overall population in U.S. counties, little attention has been given to its occurrence among racial sub-groups at any level of geography. To address this gap, we use data from the National Center for Health Statistics of the Centers for Disease Control to examine the annual volume of births and deaths among whites from 1999 to 2014 for each state.4 We focus on whites because they represent the largest share of the U.S. population and because their demographic profile increases the likelihood of natural decrease. We find a significant rise in the number of states experiencing white natural decrease in the last few years. The comparison of these states to others where white births exceed deaths helps us to understand what combination of demographic changes produce natural decrease. Though white natural decrease is clearly on the rise, only two states have more deaths than births in their total populations. This low incidence of overall natural decrease in U.S. states reflects the growing importance of Latino natural increase to overall U.S. demographic trends.

Url: http://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1288&context=carsey

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Authors: Saenz, Rogelio; Johnson, Kenneth M

Publisher: Carsey School of Public Policy

Data Collections: IPUMS USA

Topics: Race and Ethnicity

Countries: United States