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Title: Economics Uncertainty and Fertility Cycles: The Case of the Post-WWII Baby Boom

Citation Type: Working Paper

Publication Year: 2018

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Abstract: Using the US Census waves 1940-1990 and CPS 1990-2010, we look at how economic uncertainty affected fertility cycles over the course of the XXth century. We use cross-state and cross-cohort variation in the volatility of income growth to identify the causal link running from uncertainty to fertility. We find that economic uncertainty has a large and robust negative effect on completed fertility. We hypothesize that a greater economic uncertainty increases the risk of large consumption swings, which individuals mitigate by postponing fertility and ultimately decreasing their completed fertility. Differences in volatility account for between 45% and 61% of the one child variation observed during the post WWII baby boom. JEL Classification Codes: J11, J13, E32, N30

Url: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/91e0/123dfd0c3701853797a2f8fb8cf392566f5c.pdf

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Authors: Chabé-Ferret, Bastien; Gobbi, Paula E

Series Title: ECARES working paper

Publication Number: 2018-19

Institution: ECARES

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Publisher Location: Brussels, Belgium

Data Collections: IPUMS USA

Topics: Fertility and Mortality

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