Full Citation
Title: Black and White Women’s Lifetime Marriage Projections
Citation Type: Miscellaneous
Publication Year: 2022
ISBN:
ISSN: 2378-0231
DOI: 10.1177/2378023118791084
NSFID:
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Abstract: Using multiple decrement life tables based on U.S. marriage and mortality rates from 2019, this paper projects a lifetime chance of marrying for non-Hispanic, single-race White and Black women. Projections show 86.2% for White women, and 61.7% for Black women, eventually marrying for a cohort born and living through conditions prevailing in 2019 (before the COVID-19 pandemic). These projected rates represented continued steep declines in marriage, along the lines observed in recent decades. The method described here is applicable to other family events, and may be readily extended to marriage for other populations as well. Although the interplay of historical social, economic, and political factors behind patterns of marriage and family structure are complex, Black-White differences those patterns are best understood as a consequence rather than cause of racial inequality (Bloome and Ang 2020; Williams and Baker 2021). With regard to marriage specifically, Black-White differences in marriage rates among women are associated with unbalanced sex ratios in marriage markets (Cohen and Pepin 2018; Guzzo 2006), the economic prospects of Black men (Lichter, Price, and Swigert 2020; Ruggles 2021), racial intermarriage involving Black men (Crowder and Tolnay 2000), and perceived economic barriers to marriage (Gibson-Davis, Edin, and McLanahan 2005). (For a recent review, see Council (2021).) With those references to related literature above in lieu of a substantial literature review, I move to present a descriptive analysis of recent marriage rates among Black and White women, focusing on the lifetime prevalence of marriage and using a multiple decrement life table approach. The estimates here use 2019 data, from before the COVID-19 pandemic, which is the year of the most recent complete life tables available (see below), with mortality rates from the National Center for Health Statistics and first marriage estimates from the American Community Survey. This updates an analysis conducted in 2015 (Cohen 2015b).
Url: https://goodmenproject.com/featured-content/black-and-white-womens-lifetime-marriage-projections/
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Authors: Cohen, Philip N.
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Data Collections: IPUMS USA
Topics: Family and Marriage, Gender, Race and Ethnicity
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