Full Citation

Title: The frequency of high-impact convective weather events in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, MN

Citation Type: Journal Article

Publication Year: 2009

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Abstract: Thunderstorms frequently produce brief flooding or minor damage, though far fewer lead to major floodingand widespread or significant damage. Outbreaks of such storms exact large tolls on their victims and cancompromise, or completely overwhelm, the emergency response infrastructure. This paper derives empiricalfrequencies and recurrence intervals of high end convective weather events in the MinneapolisSt. Paul,Minnesota, metropolitan area from archived tornado, hail, damaging-wind, and high-density daily rainfalldata, as well as historical records and accounts. Two classes of high-impact events are analyzed: those with thepotential to produce widespread damage or disruption and those virtually certain to do so. Storms in this firstclass recur within the area, on average, 3 times per year, while the more extreme storms recur every 22.5 yron average. Owing to well-established spatial and temporal inhomogeneities in observed severe weather data,true recurrence intervals are probably somewhat shorter. In the context of ongoing regional populationgrowth, the area is becoming increasingly vulnerable to major damage and potential casualties from thesemajor storm events.

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Authors: Blumenfeld, Kenneth A.

Periodical (Full): Journal Of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Issue:

Volume: 49

Pages: 619-631

Data Collections: IPUMS NHGIS

Topics: Other

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