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Title: The Limits to Fertility Recuperation
Citation Type: Working Paper
Publication Year: 2020
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Abstract: The recently documented reversal of the association between socioeconomic development indicators and fertility rates suggests that a scenario of systematic fertility recuperation is not unlikely for a large number of countries in which fertility has fallen to low and very low levels. Although this reversal has been well-documented at the macro level, less is known about the individual-level dynamics behind it. Here, we propose and test a two-fold hypothesis about the micro-foundations of this reversal: In a first stage, advances in development drive the decline of fertility rates by contributing to the reduction of the share of unintended births (i.e., births associated with the absence or the inefficient use of contraception), and by promoting the reduction of desired family sizes as women enter the labor market. Once this first stage is completed, however, further advances in development might lead to the recuperation of fertility rates, as higher levels of education and resources may contribute to reduce the obstacles couples face when trying to achieve their desired family size. We test this hypothesis on France, Ireland, and Spain using an individual-level computational model of the reproductive process from which we simulate the maternity histories of post-baby boom cohorts. The simulations closely follow past fertility trends in all three countries. Forecasting the potential development of aggregate fertility indicators, the model predicts that even in the presence of a strong positive effect of development on fertility intentions, there are limits to the recuperation scenario imposed by further reductions in the time available for family formation, the already relatively small distance between desired and achieved fertility among recent cohorts, and the deceleration of the forces that could drive a return to higher fertility rates in the near future.
Url: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2019-024.pdf
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Authors: Ciganda, Daniel; Todd, Nicolas
Series Title: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Publication Number: 2019-024
Institution: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Pages: 37
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Data Collections: IPUMS USA
Topics: Fertility and Mortality
Countries: Germany