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Title: Two Twentieth Century Fertility Transitions: Implications for Human Capital

Citation Type: Miscellaneous

Publication Year: 2012

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Abstract: This paper compares U.S. fertility transitions in the early 20th century and post-1960 period. After affirming the similarities between declines in period fertility rates (births in a year per indicated population) and mean completed childbearing (cohort-based measures from the Census), our analysis describes five distinct features of the post-1960 period. Cohorts reaching childbearing age in the post-1960 period were substantially more likely to have exactly two children and significantly less likely to be childless (feature 1). The post-1960 period also witnessed a decoupling of sex and marriage, sex and childbearing, and marriage and childbearing. Cohorts reaching childbearing age in the post-1960 period formed their first households (through marriage or cohabitation) at similar ages as cohorts born from 1900 to 1910, but recent cohorts were much more likely to precede first marriage with non-marital cohabitation (feature 2). More recent cohorts delayed motherhood compared to the cohorts born from 1900 to 1910 and, among women marrying before having children, increased the interval between first marriage and motherhood (feature 3). These cohorts had intercourse at earlier ages but gave birth at later ages and more frequently outside of marriage (feature 4). Mothers education has become an increasingly strong predictor of age-at-first birth and non-marital childbearing in the post-1960 period (feature 5). These five features of the post-1960 period have implications for behavioral models of childbearing and the human capital acquisition of women and children.

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Authors: Hershbein, Brad J.; Guldi, Melanie; Bailey, Martha J.

Publisher: University of Michigan

Data Collections: IPUMS USA, IPUMS CPS

Topics: Family and Marriage

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