Full Citation

Title: How Elections Under COVID-19 May Change the Political Engagement of Older Voters

Citation Type: Journal Article

Publication Year: 2020

ISBN:

ISSN: 1055-3037

DOI: 10.1093/PPAR/PRAA030

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Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted nearly every aspect of life in the United States, and elections are no exception. Adaptation to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused a rapid and dramatic shift to voting by mail for the Spring 2020 presidential primaries, in response to both public demands for a “no touch” voting experience and dramatic reductions in polling places due to a lack of willing poll workers. Online voting is sometimes proposed as an alternative to voting by mail, and some states attempted small pilot programs for online voting during the 2020 primaries. However, cybersecurity researchers have found substantial flaws in proposed Internet voting platforms, and public opinion polls find that an overwhelming majority of Americans perceive online voting as a threat to election security (Specter & Halderman, 2020). These problems mean that, for now, voting by mail is the only viable alternative to in-person voting. Assuming trends from the primary season hold through the November 3, 2020, presidential election, a conservative estimate is that more than 80 million ballots will come in by mail. This is an unprecedented level of mail balloting: by comparison, in the November 2016 election, only 33 million people voted by mail. (The 80 million estimate is based on a 70% turnout in November 2020 [an increase of 9% from 2016]; an estimated voting eligible population rate of 71.3% [calculated by using the voting eligible population in November 2016 of 230,931,921, taken from McDonald, 2016, and a total population estimate of 329M at that date, taken from https://www.census.gov/popclock/]; and a vote-by-mail rate of 50%, double the observed number of mail ballots in November 2016. I view the vote-by-mail rate as a conservative estimate of the likely increase, assuming COVID-19 is still at a pandemic state and given the rate of increase in mail balloting in the 2020 primaries [from 44% on the low end to 90% on the high end; Rakich & Skelley, 2020].)

Url: https://academic.oup.com/ppar/article/30/4/147/5923298?login=true

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Authors: Gronke, Paul; Manson, Paul; Lee, Jay; Foot, Canyon

Periodical (Full): Public Policy & Aging Report

Issue: 4

Volume: 30

Pages: 147-153

Data Collections: IPUMS USA

Topics: Aging and Retirement, Health, Other

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