Full Citation

Title: The Role of Public Policy in Technology Diffusion: The Case of Plug-in Electric Vehicles

Citation Type: Journal Article

Publication Year: 2018

ISBN:

ISSN:

DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.8b01149

NSFID:

PMCID:

PMID:

Abstract: The plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) is regarded by many as a viable alternative to the internal combustion engine, so long as the radical technology is able to overcome technical and financial shortcomings that dictate consumer acceptance. States have instituted a variety of policies aimed at mitigating these shortcomings and simultaneously increasing consumer demand for PEV vehicles. Motivated by a limited body of literature on the effects of these policies, and a significant need for information about policy efficacy, in this study we evaluate the relationship between a suite of state-level policies and PEV registrations. Results reveal that tax credits for individuals, grants programs for charging infrastructure and PEV purchases, and incentives for state-owned PEVs fleets increase PEV registrations. The observed impact of grant incentives is mediated by charging capacity or, alternatively phrased, much of the influence of grants on registrations is through the channel of first improving the charging infrastructure within a state. ■ INTRODUCTION The plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) is a classic case of a radical technology. It is touted for its potential to compete with, and potentially displace, the internal combustion engine (ICE) as a dominant vehicle technology. As with other "radical" technologies, 1 however, this technological shift will require a confluence of policy, infrastructural, and behavioral developments in its favor. Generally speaking, scholars interested in the adoption and diffusion of product innovations have long recognized that government policies can encourage shifts in consumer preferences toward them. 2−4 Work on radical technologies suggest that these "pushes" from government are particularly important when an innovation represents something truly new or radical to the current technological regime with which consumers are familiar. 5,6 The first mass-marketed PEVs hit the U.S. automobile market in 2010. As of 2016, the stock of PEVs had grown to 563 710, 7 with uneven distributions of these vehicles across states. A number of factors are known to dissuade potential consumers from adopting PEVs, including cost, range, and battery recharging requirements. 8,9 PEVs tend to have an upfront cost that is 50 to 100% higher than that of similar internal combustion engine vehicles, though the level of subsidies offered by government affects what the consumer pays. 8 The range of most current PEVs on a fully charged battery without a hybrid engine is typically between 70 and 100 miles, significantly less than the 250-to 350-mile range of a conventional ICE. These distance limitations contribute to "range anxiety," 8 a fear that one's battery will die when on the road. Finally, PEVs require specific charging infrastructure that must be installed in an owner's home or an accessible public facility. Previous work on the intent to purchase PEVs 10 find that perceptions of these disadvantages damage consumer interest in adoption more than any other factor. States and municipalities have adopted a number of policies designed to overcome these barriers and facilitate PEV consumption, though the policy response varies considerably across jurisdictions. Not surprisingly, there have been a number of studies of the relationship between these policy incentives and the spread of PEVs, but these studies have reached mixed conclusions about policy impacts (see refs 11 and 12 for a recent review of many of these studies). A number of studies have also surveyed consumers and potential consumers in order to understand the impact of policies (see, for example, refs 13 and 14), and this methodological approach has also produced mixed conclusions. However, in the interest of brevity, we will only provide a partial review of studies that examine policy impact using statistical analyses to predict actual PEV purchases or registrations. Several studies have focused exclusively on the most prominent policy incentives for PEV purchasedirect financial incentives and charging infrastructure. Sierzchula et al. 15 find that both are important, but that neither has a particularly large impact on PEV purchases. Lutsey et al. 16 identify an interactive effect between these variables,

Url: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acs.est.8b01149

User Submitted?: No

Authors: Zambrano-Gutierrez, Julio C; Nicholson-Crotty, Sean; Carley, Sanya; Siddiki, Saba

Periodical (Full): Environ. Sci. Technol

Issue: 19

Volume: 52

Pages: 10914–10922

Data Collections: IPUMS USA

Topics: Other

Countries: