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Title: States of Change: The Impact of Changes in State Characteristics on Party Fortunes in the Electoral College

Citation Type: Conference Paper

Publication Year: 2014

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Abstract: This paper addresses the issue of electoral change in the states in a number of ways. First, I document the magnitude, direction, and effects of changes in party support in presidential outcomes in the states. In some states there have been substantial changes in partisan support, sometimes favoring the Democratic Party and sometimes the Republican Party, while a handful of states have been remarkably stable. the second part of the paper analyzes the sources of the changes in the context of a dynamic model that focuses on how changes in state population characteristics are associated with changes in party support. Although some of the commonly identified culprits of partisan change do bear some impact in isolation, they take a back seat to changes in longer-term political factors. finally, the third part of the paper is an attempt to provide some sense of how the changing political environment combines with changing state populations to produce changes in party performance on Election Day.

Url: https://apw.polisci.wisc.edu/APW_Papers/paper_edited-1.pdf

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Authors: Holbrook, Thomas M.

Conference Name: 2014 meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association

Publisher Location: Chicago, IL

Data Collections: IPUMS USA

Topics: Other

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