Full Citation

Title: Maybe Next Month? The Dynamic Effects of Ambient Temperature on Fertility

Citation Type: Miscellaneous

Publication Year: 2015

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Abstract: We investigate how high-frequency variation in climatic conditions affects fertility outcomes. Specifically, we estimate the effects of ambient temperatures on state-by-month birth rates and infant health in the United States (c. 1931-2010). Unusual shifts in the distribution of daily mean temperatures for a given state and calendar month provide the identifying variation. Consistent with other research, we find high temperatures cause a decline in birth rates approximately 8 to 10 months later. However, we present novel evidence the initial decline is followed by an increase in births over the next few months (11, 12, and 13 months after exposure). Importantly, this temporal shift has a hidden cost in terms of worse health outcomes. Exposure to hot days in the third trimester leads to lower birth weight and higher rates of preterm delivery, and shifting conceptions from summer months to winter months exposes more children to summer heat during the critical third trimester the following year. Also, we investigate how the temperaturefertility relationship has changed over time, and consider the implications of our findings in the context of climate change.

Url: http://economics.gsu.edu/files/2014/08/Barreca-Temperature-Fertility-2015.pdf

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Authors: Barreca, Alan; Deschenes, Olivier; Guldi, Melanie

Publisher: Tulane University

Data Collections: IPUMS USA

Topics: Fertility and Mortality

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