Full Citation
Title: Measuring Constituency Ideology Using Bayesian Universal Kriging
Citation Type: Journal Article
Publication Year: 2021
ISBN:
ISSN: 1532-4400
DOI: 10.1177/1532440020930197
NSFID:
PMCID:
PMID:
Abstract: In this article, we develop and make available measures of public ideology in 2010 for the 50 American states, 435 congressional districts, and state legislative districts. We do this using the geospatial statistical technique of Bayesian universal kriging, which uses the locations of survey respondents, as well as population covariate values, to predict ideology for simulated citizens in districts across the country. In doing this, we improve on past research that uses the kriging technique for forecasting public opinion by incorporating Alaska and Hawaii, making the important distinction between ZIP codes and ZIP Code Tabulation Areas, and introducing more precise data from the 2010 Census. We show that our estimates of ideology at the state, congressional district, and state legislative district levels appropriately predict the ideology of legislators elected from these districts, serving as an external validity check.
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Authors: Gill, Jeff
Periodical (Full): State Politics & Policy Quarterly
Issue: 1
Volume: 21
Pages: 80-107
Data Collections: IPUMS NHGIS
Topics: Population Data Science
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