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Title: Estimating the Impact of Gubernatorial Partisanship on Policy Settings and Economic Outcomes: A Regression Discontinuity Approach

Citation Type: Working Paper

Publication Year: 2007

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Abstract: Using panel data from US states over the period 1941-2002, I measure the impact ofgubernatorial partisanship on a wide range of different policy settings and economicoutcomes. Across 32 measures, there are surprisingly few differences in policy settings,social outcomes and economic outcomes under Democrat and Republican Governors. Interms of policies, Democratic Governors tend to prefer slightly higher minimum wages.Under Republican Governors, incarceration rates are higher, while welfare caseloads arehigher under Democratic Governors. In terms of social and economic outcomes,Democratic Governors tend to preside over higher median post-tax income, lower posttaxinequality, and lower unemployment rates. However, for 26 of the 32 dependentvariables, gubernatorial partisanship does not have a statistically significant impact onpolicy outcomes and social welfare. I find no evidence of gubernatorial partisandifferences in tax rates, welfare generosity, the number of government employees or theirsalaries, state revenue, incarceration rates, execution rates, pre-tax incomes andinequality, crime rates, suicide rates, and test scores. These results are robust to the use ofregression discontinuity estimation, to take account of the possibility of reverse causality.Overall, it seems that Governors behave in a fairly non-ideological manner.

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Authors: Leigh, Andrew

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Publication Number: 556

Institution: ANU CEPR

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Publisher Location: Canberra, Australia

Data Collections: IPUMS USA

Topics: Labor Force and Occupational Structure, Other, Race and Ethnicity

Countries: United States