Full Citation

Title: Missing Children: Indirect estimation of child mortality from census microdata

Citation Type: Conference Paper

Publication Year: 2012

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Abstract: In this paper, we develop a new method of inferring child mortality from the age gaps between surviving children. Based on the idea that higher child mortality produces an increased frequency of large gaps between surviving children, we use microsimulation to estimate the mortality rates implied by the observed distribution of age gaps.Application to populations with known child mortality shows that the method can reproduce well the estimates and differentials in child mortality seen in real populations. Estimates of child mortality from census-like data could be a valuable new addition to the toolkit of demographers to apply to the proliferation of historical census data via the IPUMS, NAPP, and the new Mosaic project, allowing thestudy of mortality and fertility (via the own child method) within populations and across time and space. This method, if successful, would enable researchers to estimate both mortality and fertility from a single census cross section, allowing full advantage of the richness of available census material.

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Authors: Gonzalez-Prieto, Ester; Goldstein, Joshua R.

Conference Name: Population Association of America

Publisher Location: San Francisco, CA

Data Collections: IPUMS USA

Topics: Fertility and Mortality

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