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Title: Market and Modeling Uncertainty in Distributed Solar Deployment Projections: A Multi-Model Comparison
Citation Type: Miscellaneous
Publication Year: 2018
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Abstract: Distributed solar photovoltaic (DPV) systems that generate energy in behind-the-meter applications for residential, commercial, and other end-use sectors are a growing—and potentially disruptive—development in the U.S. power system. While less than 1% of all electricity generation in the United States came from DPV systems in 2016 (EIA 20171 ), this technology has experienced rapid growth in recent years and, as of the end of 2017, over 1.6 million DPV systems had been installed (GTM 2017). Given this, projecting distributed solar deployment is increasingly pertinent—yet remains highly uncertain. The traditional U.S. power system has historically consisted of large, centralized baseload generators connected to demand centers via a hub-and-spoke network of synchronized voltage transmission and distribution lines. Utilities have also historically financed most infrastructure with charges apportioned among customers on a volumetric basis. DPV systems disrupt both prior foundations of the U.S. electric power system. Not only are DPV systems typically low capacity, but their generation directly offsets on-site electricity consumption or is exported to the grid in the case of excess, thereby reducing electricity sales. Recent declines in DPV costs has prompted questions regarding the conditions in which consumers might find electricity sourced from DPV more economically compelling than grid-sourced electricity. Sometimes termed “grid parity”, this phenomenon could accelerate DPV adoption. Clarity about whether DPV might achieve grid parity, the timing and extent of this transition, and future levels of DPV deployment are important factors to consider for power system operational conditions, engineering and financial risk, and long-term planning of the U.S. electric grid.
Url: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/70902.pdf
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Authors: Sigrin, Ben; Kwasnik, Ted; Spitsen, Paul; Fickling, Meera; Jarzomski, Kevin; Boedecker, Erin
Publisher: National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Data Collections: IPUMS NHGIS
Topics: Other
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