Full Citation
Title: Exposure to Armed Conflict and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa
Citation Type: Journal Article
Publication Year: 2020
ISBN:
ISSN:
DOI: 10.1007/s13524-020-00923-2
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Abstract: Changes in fertility patterns are hypothesized to be among the many second-order consequences of armed conflict, but expectations about the direction of such effects are theoretically ambiguous. Prior research, from a range of contexts, has also yielded inconsistent results. We contribute to this debate by using harmonized data and methods to examine the effects of exposure to conflict on preferred and realized fertility outcomes across a spatially and temporally extensive population. We use high-resolution georeferenced data from 25 sub-Saharan African countries, combining records of violent events from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset with survey data on fertility goals and outcomes from the Demographic and Health Surveys (n=368,785 women aged 15-49 years). We employ a series of linear and logistic regression models to estimate the effects of exposure to conflict events within a 10-kilometer radius of respondents’ communities on ideal family size and the probability of childbearing within the past 12 months. We find that exposure to armed conflict is significantly associated with reductions in both respondents’ preferred family size and their probability of recent childbearing. Many of these effects are heterogeneous between demographic groups and across contexts, which suggests systematic differences in women’s vulnerability and demographic responses to armed conflict. Additional analyses suggest that conflict-related fertility declines may be driven by delays or reductions in marriage. These results contribute generalizable evidence about the demographic effects of conflict and their underlying mechanisms and underline the importance of studying the secondorder effects of violent conflict on vulnerable populations.
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Authors: Thiede, Brian C.; Hancock, Matthew; Kodouda, Ahmed; Piazza, James
Periodical (Full): Demography
Issue: 6
Volume: 57
Pages: 2113-2141
Data Collections: IPUMS Global Health - DHS
Topics: Fertility and Mortality, Other
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