Full Citation
Title: The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets: American Cities During the Great Depression
Citation Type: Working Paper
Publication Year: 2007
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Abstract: During the Depression, long-time residents in many areas often claimed that migrants from the rest of the United States crowded the labor market and the relief rolls. Our estimates confirm these claims. Using aggregate data on internal migration flows matched to individual records from the 1940 Census, we find that residents of metropolitan areas that experienced high in-migration worked fewer weeks during the year, which lowered their annual earnings, and were less likely to secure a public relief job if out of work. To control for the likelihood that migrants were attracted to areas with high wages or plentiful work opportunities, we instrument for migration flows. The instrument predicts out-migration from local areas using extreme weather events and variations in the generosity of New Deal programs and assigns these flows to destinations based on geographic distance. As one example, our estimates suggest that the Dust Bowl, which sent around 37,000 male migrants to California, would have caused 24,000 Californians to leave the state, 8,000 to switch from full-year to part-year employment, and an additional 2,600 of those already unemployed to fail to secure a relief job. The local adjustment to this labor supply shock through queuing for relief jobs and reduced work opportunities is consistent with the history of job sharing and wage rigidity during the 1930s.
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Authors: Fishback, Price; Kantor, Shawn; Boustan, Leah Platt
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Publication Number: 13276
Institution: National Bureau of Economic Research
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Data Collections: IPUMS USA
Topics: Labor Force and Occupational Structure, Migration and Immigration
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